bluff overshove this river? 100NL

Grandezza · #1 11-06-2007, 05:44 PM

villain is 16/14/2.5 over 70 hands

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (6 handed) Party Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($161.97)
CO ($262.31)
Button ($137.72)
SB ($89)
BB ($138.73)
UTG ($98.50)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises to $4, CO calls $4, Button calls $4, 2 folds.

Flop: ($13.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets $9, CO folds, Button calls $9.

Turn: ($31.50) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $22, Button calls $22.

River: ($75.50) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)

VPIP100 · #2 11-06-2007, 05:46 PM

I think a bluff overshove here is pretty gross, ~40$ dollar bet achieves the same.

Grandezza · #3 11-06-2007, 05:47 PM

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I think a bluff overshove here is pretty gross, ~40$ dollar bet achieves the same.

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i think he has a K the majority of the time no?

cheer · #4 11-06-2007, 05:49 PM

check and hope he misses clubs, QT. ship

VPIP100 · #5 11-06-2007, 05:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think a bluff overshove here is pretty gross, ~40$ dollar bet achieves the same.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think he has a K the majority of the time no?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, or QT, if he calls turn with a K he calls river.

VPIP100 · #6 11-06-2007, 05:51 PM

btw, Id rather shove the river if we hit then just valuebetting. Villain is either really strong or really weak.

Grandezza · #7 11-06-2007, 05:57 PM

why is he either really strong or really weak? i would expect him to raise flop or turn on a board like this w/ a monster..

Yes I agree that he calls a 3/4 bet with a K but tags usually know that an overbet means a strong hand which is why I think I can get him off it on the river.

VPIP100 · #8 11-06-2007, 06:01 PM

If you hit on the river hes either calling or folding, doesnt matter how much you bet. (his range contains draws hes folding and strong hands he called turn with are calling river)

I dont think villain ever folds a made hand on the river if he called the turn.

Grandezza · #9 11-06-2007, 06:05 PM

"I dont think villain ever folds a made hand on the river if he called the turn."

well this I don't agree with.. Seriously that would be a huge leak to have and I really don't expect a a TAG to be that bad. If he's even half way decent I think he folds KQ to a shove. He might show up with AK sometimes which would suck since I expect him to call with that.

VPIP100 · #10 11-06-2007, 06:07 PM

Why would a TAG call the turn with KQ and fold to a blank river?