I suck at prop bets

badhandoop · #1 10-01-2007, 05:59 PM

I'm playing my live 1-2NL and this regular I know who has some of the dumbest ideas about hand equity suggests a bet. We agree for a $5 bet per hand.

- Any Ace or King comes on the board at any point in the hand, he wins. Otherwise, I win.

The best part is that he agrees for payment for any hand that sees at least the flop.

I lose about $110 on this bet in about 4 hours.

Was I running bad or do I fail at maths BBV?

killsadie · #2 10-01-2007, 06:02 PM

you got hustled, even the dealer was in on it.

pologuy64 · #3 10-01-2007, 06:04 PM

post this in the probablilty fourm. Only saying this cause i would like to know the real anwser.

dkgojackets · #4 10-01-2007, 06:05 PM

do math

5 cards dealt x 2 winners for him = 10

10 out of 13 possible cards

you fail

zyrrth · #5 10-01-2007, 06:10 PM

hustled

rakk · #6 10-01-2007, 06:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
hustled

[/ QUOTE ]

Sphere99991 · #7 10-01-2007, 07:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
hustled

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

He's a 3-2 favorite. Good job, donkey.

badhandoop · #8 10-01-2007, 06:58 PM

I completely do not understand this. If there are 5 chances for a 8/52 to come out, shouldn't it be a 40/52 by the river? And considering all the times the hand would end with just the 3 flop cards, wouldn't I have an edge?

fnord_too · #9 10-01-2007, 07:08 PM

He will win this ~58% of the time. This is awsome because you can rationalize "If you have AK, you are only 50/50 to pair one of the cards."

rchandra · #10 10-01-2007, 07:36 PM

but remember, you're assuming there are 5 board cards. Sometimes there will be 3 or 4. so I guess the real question is what values of (sees flop) , (sees turn) , (sees river) make the bet profitable for the No A no K
Also are people more likely to have As and Ks in hand when the hand goes longer? it seems so to me but I have no proof or data.