I suck at prop bets
 

I'm playing my live 1-2NL and this regular I know who has some of the dumbest ideas about hand equity suggests a bet. We agree for a $5 bet per hand.

- Any Ace or King comes on the board at any point in the hand, he wins. Otherwise, I win.

The best part is that he agrees for payment for any hand that sees at least the flop.

I lose about $110 on this bet in about 4 hours.

Was I running bad or do I fail at maths BBV?

Re: I suck at prop bets
 

you got hustled, even the dealer was in on it.

Re: I suck at prop bets
 

post this in the probablilty fourm. Only saying this cause i would like to know the real anwser.

Re: I suck at prop bets
 

do math

5 cards dealt x 2 winners for him = 10

10 out of 13 possible cards

you fail

Re: I suck at prop bets
 

This is a very interesting prop as the odds of seeing subsequent cards are influenced by the hole cards. To what degree, I don't know. For example, someone holding Ax, where they pair their x on the flop is more likely to chase to the river for two pair.

Re: I suck at prop bets
 

hustled

Re: I suck at prop bets
 

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Re: I suck at prop bets
 

I completely do not understand this. If there are 5 chances for a 8/52 to come out, shouldn't it be a 40/52 by the river? And considering all the times the hand would end with just the 3 flop cards, wouldn't I have an edge?

Re: I suck at prop bets
 

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hustled

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He's a 3-2 favorite. Good job, donkey.

Re: I suck at prop bets
 

He will win this ~58% of the time. This is awsome because you can rationalize "If you have AK, you are only 50/50 to pair one of the cards."