[Mondogarage]

No, I do not undervalue walks. However, walks are not the tipping point in putting McGwire in the HOF. Not when he's still only a .263 career hitter whose biggest feat is an alarming number of home runs -- and this is even before considering the potential taint to his home run totals.

I dunno whether you're old enough to actually remember Dave Kingman, but when he retired, his 442 home runs were something like 10th all time.

McGwire was certainly a better batter than Kingman -- I'm not saying the two are *exactly alike*. However, Kingman is the most comparable career stat line to McGwire of those who are out there, and given the controversy, I just don't see him getting in.

Jim Rice compiled his numbers in a far less offensive era than Raines, and still piled up almost 400 HRs, over .350 OBP, and nearly 2500 hits. Raines' career was 7 years longer, and he only had 150 more hits. A ton of walks, sure, but in a 23 year career?

Point being, walks don't get you in the HOF, and walks aren't going to be the deciding factor in voters' minds, when deciding whether a borderline candidate gets in or not. Raines was a very good player for a long long time, but was essentially never one of the handful of truly great players. For a speed guy, he never even had a single 200 hit season, in one of the most offensive eras ever. Rice was, for several years, one of the most dangerous hitters in the game, period.

In fact, Raines' career OPS is 40 points lower than Rice's, and his OBP is only 30 points higher even with twice the walks. Raines was nowhere near the player Rice was, and if Rice hasn't been able to get in thus far, there's no way Raines gets in.

Obviously, McGwire *can* get in, I just don't think he will.