Re: annoying river spot 25/50
I'll take a stab at his range..
boat - flop makes sense. but turn seems unlikely he'd play it like this. he knows its hard for you to rep a T, and your range is Ax/two pair most of the time, KQ/KT sometimes and random float rarely. so a bet makes most sense with a set here, especially since now you can have a few more two pairs. river bet sizing? he can do this for value since he knows you have at least Ax, and perhaps induce a heroic bluff raise. but still, he is 25/20 and tough and big pairs are hard to get. 25%
AK/AQ - pretty consistent line for those hands. 25%
Random Q - depends a lot on how he plays in these 3 way pots after a late position raise. I'd guess 15%
Ax - river bet doesn't really make sense. unless he is leveling us and figures 650 is as good as 900 for getting us off of an A or KJ. 10%
Bluff - 25%
Maybe my numbers are way off, but I think I call this.
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