UTG with A8o and my last chance...
 

...to push with good fold equity. In less than a minute the blinds will be 100/200.

I'm fairly certain pushing is -$ev from from a pure ICM standpoint. If I get lucky enough to steal the blinds here I'll have more chances to steal for one round with the blinds at 100/200. If I fold, I have to wait for a big hand that probably won't come in time.

I am a little lost as to guidelines for what kind of hands to push here. Surely we can't just wait for something that gives us a +.05% $ev edge if we push. Should we add the hands that are down to 0.0% edge? Or do we need to gamble even more?

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t75/t150
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Hero: t1135
UTG+1: t1740
MP1: t1917
MP2: t1335
MP3: t733
CO: t174
Button: t2685
SB: t3028
BB: t753

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is UTG with 8sAh

Re: UTG with A8o and my last chance...
 

Ooops mis-read the hand, thought the blinds were already 100-200. I think that makes a bit of a difference and I'm probably going to fold.

Re: UTG with A8o and my last chance...
 

This is a fold. You simply can't push A-rag through this many villains unless desperately short. Although you are short, you still have life. Get through the blinds and hope to find a better spot.

Better spot = better hand, or good position to open from.

Re: UTG with A8o and my last chance...
 

[ QUOTE ]
This is a fold. You simply can't push A-rag through this many villains unless desperately short. Although you are short, you still have life. Get through the blinds and hope to find a better spot.

Better spot = better hand, or good position to open from.

[/ QUOTE ]

You may be right about A80 specifically, but aren't there some hands here that I can't justify pushing here from an ICM standpoint but can justify from a standpoint of the need to keep my stack size healthy enough to steal later?

Re: UTG with A8o and my last chance...
 

You didn't misread, they aren't at 100/200 yet but they will be the time I finish going through them.

Re: UTG with A8o and my last chance...
 

[ QUOTE ]
You didn't misread, they aren't at 100/200 yet but they will be the time I finish going through them.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, the more and more I think about this hand: it's a fold, blinds going up or not.

Re: UTG with A8o and my last chance...
 

With 100/200 blinds you still have folding equity with 800 chips.

Re: UTG with A8o and my last chance...
 

[ QUOTE ]
With 100/200 blinds you still have folding equity with 800 chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. So, you don't need to be taking -EV spots yet.

Re: UTG with A8o and my last chance...
 

Right now (at 75/150) your M is 5. Provided your stack size remains the same, at the 100/200 your M drops to 3.8, so I understand wanting to push.

However, you have a mediocre hand in horrible position. Also, you have a decent stack size. Your M is low, but so is the rest of the table. The big stack will barely have an M of 10 once the new level hits.

I wait for a better spot.

Re: UTG with A8o and my last chance...
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
With 100/200 blinds you still have folding equity with 800 chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. So, you don't need to be taking -EV spots yet.

[/ QUOTE ]