oh noes, Peak Oil?
 

Article in The Guardian

"The German-based Energy Watch Group will release its study in London today saying that global oil production peaked in 2006 - much earlier than most experts had expected. The report, which predicts that production will now fall by 7% a year, comes after oil prices set new records almost every day last week, on Friday hitting more than $90 (£44) a barrel."

"The results are in contrast to projections from the International Energy Agency, which says there is little reason to worry about oil supplies at the moment. However, the EWG study relies more on actual oil production data which, it says, are more reliable than estimates of reserves still in the ground."

Anyone know more on this? Seems likely to be a false alarm, but the reserves reported by OPEC are widely believed to be inflated.

Re: oh noes, Peak Oil?
 

I take this fairly seriously -- much more so than the threat of global climate change (which I don't deny but am not particularly afraid of). We might be able to slow down the really ugly consequences of this once it begins to become profitable to tap the really hard to extract/refine stuff that we know is out there. But I tend to believe that the easy/cheap stuff that powered 20th century development has peaked or will peak shortly.

Re: oh noes, Peak Oil?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I take this fairly seriously -- much more so than the threat of global climate change (which I don't deny but am not particularly afraid of). We might be able to slow down the really ugly consequences of this once it begins to become profitable to tap the really hard to extract/refine stuff that we know is out there. But I tend to believe that the easy/cheap stuff that powered 20th century development has peaked or will peak shortly.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wont this just create a market incentive for alternative fuel sources? Even today there alternatives that are approaching the cusp of profitability. I'm not sure where you see an impending crisis (growing pains sure, but major threat?).

Re: oh noes, Peak Oil?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I take this fairly seriously -- much more so than the threat of global climate change (which I don't deny but am not particularly afraid of). We might be able to slow down the really ugly consequences of this once it begins to become profitable to tap the really hard to extract/refine stuff that we know is out there. But I tend to believe that the easy/cheap stuff that powered 20th century development has peaked or will peak shortly.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wont this just create a market incentive for alternative fuel sources? Even today there alternatives that are approaching the cusp of profitability. I'm not sure where you see an impending crisis (growing pains sure, but major threat?).

[/ QUOTE ]

There is no feasible short-term alternative for oil. Profitable != cheap and we need cheap.

Re: oh noes, Peak Oil?
 

[ QUOTE ]
There is no feasible short-term alternative for oil.

[/ QUOTE ] And there is no forseeable need for a short term alternative to oil.

Re: oh noes, Peak Oil?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Article in The Guardian

"The German-based Energy Watch Group will release its study in London today saying that global oil production peaked in 2006 - much earlier than most experts had expected. The report, which predicts that production will now fall by 7% a year, comes after oil prices set new records almost every day last week, on Friday hitting more than $90 (£44) a barrel."

"The results are in contrast to projections from the International Energy Agency, which says there is little reason to worry about oil supplies at the moment. However, the EWG study relies more on actual oil production data which, it says, are more reliable than estimates of reserves still in the ground."

Anyone know more on this? Seems likely to be a false alarm, but the reserves reported by OPEC are widely believed to be inflated.

[/ QUOTE ]


Conclusion:

Get the state out of everything so the market can operate and make the best use of resources and also give off the best signals for alternatives.

Re: oh noes, Peak Oil?
 

http://img145.imageshack.us/img145/1679/panicid2.gif

Re: oh noes, Peak Oil?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
There is no feasible short-term alternative for oil.

[/ QUOTE ] And there is no forseeable need for a short term alternative to oil.

[/ QUOTE ]
Prices stayed low during the entire 20th century because production was constantly increasing. Demand is still increasing, of course, but the predictions are that "...production will now fall by 7% a year..." with no end in sight. If oil production peaked only last year and we're already flirting with $100 a barrel, we're going to need some serious creativity very quickly if we want to sustain the kind of growth economy we've been enjoying.

Re: oh noes, Peak Oil?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
There is no feasible short-term alternative for oil.

[/ QUOTE ] And there is no forseeable need for a short term alternative to oil.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nero: "There is no need to call out the fire brigade. I'm off for a fiddle."

Re: oh noes, Peak Oil?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Article in The Guardian

"The German-based Energy Watch Group will release its study in London today saying that global oil production peaked in 2006 - much earlier than most experts had expected. The report, which predicts that production will now fall by 7% a year, comes after oil prices set new records almost every day last week, on Friday hitting more than $90 (£44) a barrel."

"The results are in contrast to projections from the International Energy Agency, which says there is little reason to worry about oil supplies at the moment. However, the EWG study relies more on actual oil production data which, it says, are more reliable than estimates of reserves still in the ground."

Anyone know more on this? Seems likely to be a false alarm, but the reserves reported by OPEC are widely believed to be inflated.

[/ QUOTE ]


Conclusion:

Get the state out of everything so the market can operate and make the best use of resources and also give off the best signals for alternatives.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, that's really worked. Shell are knocking themselves out looking for alternatives with oil at $90 a barrel.

Do you have any idea what the barriers to entry to the energy market would be like?

Re: oh noes, Peak Oil?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
There is no feasible short-term alternative for oil.

[/ QUOTE ] And there is no forseeable need for a short term alternative to oil.

[/ QUOTE ]
Prices stayed low during the entire 20th century because production was constantly increasing. Demand is still increasing, of course, but the predictions are that "...production will now fall by 7% a year..." with no end in sight. If oil production peaked only last year and we're already flirting with $100 a barrel, we're going to need some serious creativity very quickly if we want to sustain the kind of growth economy we've been enjoying.

[/ QUOTE ]I'm sorry, I thought you meant short-term in the sense an economist would use it: over a time frame in which people cannot adjust their consumption habits in order to seek an equilibrium. All the problems you are pointing out are long-run problems, which inherently are solved by long-run, incremental solutions. Short-run problems are almost always caused by the unexpected; nobody discusses them in advance.

Also, how exactly should we encourage this "serious creativity" in energy thought? If the expected price of fuel is going to rise that dramatically (it's actually expected to rise and the interest rate + storage rate, per Hotelling's Rule and Rational Pricing Theory), then research and development has an expected rate of return high enough that it should already be in motion.

I can think of a few reasons it might need additional encouragement:
1) To decrease variance in future economic growth rates.
2) Using oil has negative externalities.
3) The market does not reflect expected price increases accurately.

#1 is sketchy; you're wasting huge amounts of resources on something that may or may not have a positive effect on a problem that may or may not arise in the future.

#2 is something more directly addressed in the present.

#3 is something private business should be able to profit from, and would need absolutely no input from the government to correct itself.

Come to think of it, I'm hearing more about breakthroughs in alternative energy sources now than I've certainly ever heard in the past. It seems like everybody is doing a surprisingly good job preparing to profit from the end of oil.

Am I missing something?

Re: oh noes, Peak Oil?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
There is no feasible short-term alternative for oil.

[/ QUOTE ] And there is no forseeable need for a short term alternative to oil.

[/ QUOTE ]
Prices stayed low during the entire 20th century because production was constantly increasing. Demand is still increasing, of course, but the predictions are that "...production will now fall by 7% a year..." with no end in sight. If oil production peaked only last year and we're already flirting with $100 a barrel, we're going to need some serious creativity very quickly if we want to sustain the kind of growth economy we've been enjoying.

[/ QUOTE ]I'm sorry, I thought you meant short-term in the sense an economist would use it: over a time frame in which people cannot adjust their consumption habits in order to seek an equilibrium. All the problems you are pointing out are long-run problems

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think so. Even in economists' terms, they are intermediate term.

[ QUOTE ]
which inherently are solved by long-run, incremental solutions.

[/ QUOTE ]

Or not solved. The system can change without anything being "solved".

[ QUOTE ]
Short-run problems are almost always caused by the unexpected; nobody discusses them in advance.

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless some gain from pretending not to expect them. Jeez, it's tough talking to people who pretend that everyone is a rational self-interest bot.


[ QUOTE ]
Also, how exactly should we encourage this "serious creativity" in energy thought? If the expected price of fuel is going to rise that dramatically (it's actually expected to rise and the interest rate + storage rate, per Hotelling's Rule and Rational Pricing Theory), then research and development has an expected rate of return high enough that it should already be in motion.

[/ QUOTE ]

Who will do the R&D?

[ QUOTE ]
I can think of a few reasons it might need additional encouragement:
1) To decrease variance in future economic growth rates.
2) Using oil has negative externalities.
3) The market does not reflect expected price increases accurately.

#1 is sketchy; you're wasting huge amounts of resources on something that may or may not have a positive effect on a problem that may or may not arise in the future.

#2 is something more directly addressed in the present.

#3 is something private business should be able to profit from, and would need absolutely no input from the government to correct itself.

Come to think of it, I'm hearing more about breakthroughs in alternative energy sources now than I've certainly ever heard in the past. It seems like everybody is doing a surprisingly good job preparing to profit from the end of oil.

Am I missing something?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that there's a gap between the end of oil and the beginning of whatever, caused by energy companies' thinking that they profit sufficiently from the end of oil and the increased prices that brings that it doesn't yet make alternative sources attractive enough.

Re: oh noes, Peak Oil?
 

You're right; market forces are black magic and are never to be trusted.