My first 10k hands *WARNING* stats
 

here they are. my won@sd is under 50 so i have a hunch i'm running pretty bad. But all in all, it appears i'm not a winning player at this point, even at the lowest levels. can anything be gleaned from these stats? thanks [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

http://img404.imageshack.us/img404/1...hahaha1ck9.jpg

http://img243.imageshack.us/img243/3...hahaha2ol2.png

holla!

Re: My first 10k hands *WARNING* stats
 

[ QUOTE ]

can anything be gleaned from these stats? thanks

[/ QUOTE ]

You're not a winning player?

Your positional stats seem ok, probably get a little tighter.

Go into your database and look through your ten biggest losing hands and analyze pot odds on each street compared to what your opponent held.

If you have any specific hand Q's post them here.

Re: My first 10k hands *WARNING* stats
 

[ QUOTE ]

You're not a winning player?


[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't go that far, Troll. I have lost over much longer stretches and am still a solid winner but maybe 10k losing is unheard of at 25PLO never really played it.

Re: My first 10k hands *WARNING* stats
 

Don't read to much in the W$SD number around 50% is pretty normal I think. Your numbers are right around mine from the beggining of my omaha playing days for the 25-100 games over a larger sample with a 7PTBB/100 win rate. Mine is 49.19.

Other then that I can't really make any assumptions based on the stats. You could easily have those stats and it wouldn't suprise me if you had a decent win rate.

I'd just look at decent sized pots on both wins and loses and see how they look and keep posting hands.

Re: My first 10k hands *WARNING* stats
 

I lost my old database and have recently been doing most of play on Bodog though, so I really don't have a lot of hands to compare to.

However, I do get the impression that you're passively going to showdown when you should be taking pots down on the flop and turn. Try ratcheting up the aggression a little bit.

Re: My first 10k hands *WARNING* stats
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

You're not a winning player?


[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't go that far, Troll. I have lost over much longer stretches and am still a solid winner but maybe 10k losing is unheard of at 25PLO never really played it.

[/ QUOTE ]

True, I should have said that his stats tells us _over that set of hands_ he is not a winning player.

As my stats professor was fond of saying, "Only god knows the true mean". This particularly applies to poker. I wonder if God plays poker, what his favorite game is.

Re: My first 10k hands *WARNING* stats
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

You're not a winning player?


[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't go that far, Troll. I have lost over much longer stretches and am still a solid winner but maybe 10k losing is unheard of at 25PLO never really played it.

[/ QUOTE ]

jesus christ, you guys are surly ^_^ this post is pretty lame, but i was just looking to identify any glaring leaks. thanks for the replies.

Re: My first 10k hands *WARNING* stats
 

oh, i understand lol. i thought you were calling me a troll.

here's the positional stats again, they don't seem to be working in the op.

http://img456.imageshack.us/img456/6...hahaha2fl8.png

Re: My first 10k hands *WARNING* stats
 

Tighten up in the SB, but in general 10k hands is nowhere near enough.

Re: My first 10k hands *WARNING* stats
 

This is my first post so be gentle [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Here are my stats, when I was learning omaha in spring 2006. 9k hands nutpeddling PLO25 full and I think I did ok for a beginner. At those microlevels nutpeddling is not a bad way to make a little bit of money...

http://img142.imageshack.us/img142/8...25statssm3.jpg

Re: My first 10k hands *WARNING* stats
 

personally evan i think the stats look pretty excellent. Post some hands! Any leaks are not going to be found here

Re: My first 10k hands *WARNING* stats
 

[ QUOTE ]
personally evan i think the stats look pretty excellent. Post some hands! Any leaks are not going to be found here

[/ QUOTE ]

Also, post your positional stats and standard deviation for that winrate.

Positional stats indicate what sort of preflop player you are and standard deviation probably helps identify the type of post flop play.

Re: My first 10k hands *WARNING* stats
 

position stats are posted, but i can't find the tab in pter where it shows me standard deviation. i thought it was under 'more detail' but i dunno.

here are some hands where i got stacked...lemme know if you see anything [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] this one is donktastic, obviously.

Full Tilt Poker
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $24.50
UTG+1: $24.50
CO: $27.55
Button: $126.10
SB: $11.90
Hero: $25.70

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
2 folds, CO calls, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises to $1.1</font>, SB folds, Hero calls, CO calls.

Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($3.4, 3 players)
Hero checks, CO checks, <font color="#cc0000">Button bets $3.4</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $13.6</font>, CO calls, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises to $61.2</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero calls all-in $11</font>, <font color="#cc0000">CO calls all-in $12.85</font>.
Uncalled bets: $34.75 returned to Button.

Turn: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($80.9, 1 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: $77.2, Sidepot 1: $3.7)


River: T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($80.9, 1 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: $77.2, Sidepot 1: $3.7)


Results:
Final pot: $80.9


ugh i was just looking over all the hands where i lost a full stack. i'm sure there are lots more questionable plays but i got bad beat so many times for full stacks.

Re: My first 10k hands *WARNING* stats
 

the more i look over these hands the more i realize i run bad in big pots, just like in holdem =D here's a few, just for fun...

he had a big hand on the turn here but my turn c/r is still legit, right?

Full Tilt Poker
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $23.65
UTG+1: $27.35
CO: $20.45
Hero: $24.65
SB: $24.95
BB: $33.20

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 raises to $0.85</font>, CO folds, Hero calls, SB calls, BB folds.

Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($2.8, 3 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 bets $2.8</font>, Hero calls, SB folds.

Turn: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($8.4, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 bets $8.4</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises all-in $21</font>, UTG+1 calls.

River: 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($50.4, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $50.4)


Results:
Final pot: $50.4
<font color="#ffffff">UTG+1 showed Jd Ad Qc Ac</font>
<font color="#ffffff">Hero showed Th 8s 9h 7s</font>


this one is fishcakes. do i need to always wait till the river to check and see if i have the nuts before i put money in? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Full Tilt Poker
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $2.05
UTG+1: $19.45
CO: $17.25
Button: $25.50
Hero: $34.75
BB: $69.20

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, CO calls, Button folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $1.5</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, CO calls.

Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($7.5, 5 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $7.5</font>, BB calls, <font color="#cc0000">UTG calls all-in $0.55</font>, 2 folds.

Turn: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($23.05, 2 players + 1 all-in - Main pot: $9.15, Sidepot 1: $13.9)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $23.05</font>, BB calls.

River: 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($69.15, 2 players + 1 all-in - Main pot: $9.15, Sidepot 1: $60)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero is all-in $2.7</font>, BB calls.

Results:
Final pot: $74.55
<font color="#ffffff">Hero showed As Qd 3c Ac</font>
<font color="#ffffff">BB showed 6h Kd Jh 7h</font>
<font color="#ffffff">UTG mucks Jc 8d 2d Kc</font>

again, another turn checkraise. is this okay?

Full Tilt Poker
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $39.60
CO: $10
Button: $10.20
Hero: $23.15
BB: $28.30

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG calls, CO (poster) checks, Button calls, Hero calls, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises to $1.5</font>, UTG calls, CO folds, Button calls, Hero calls.

Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($6.25, 4 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Button checks.

Turn: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($6.25, 4 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">BB bets $6.25</font>, 2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises all-in $21.65</font>, BB calls.

River: 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($49.55, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $49.55)


Results:
Final pot: $49.55
<font color="#ffffff">Hero showed Qd Qs Th Tc</font>
<font color="#ffffff">BB showed 7s Kh Kc Ts</font>

Re: My first 10k hands *WARNING* stats
 

[ QUOTE ]
I wonder if God plays poker, what his favorite game is.

[/ QUOTE ]

razz.

Re: My first 10k hands *WARNING* stats
 

Evan, your play here is generally fine. Certainly there's nothing wrong with anything you did in hands in the last post. Your play with top 2 is certainly questionable, both flop and pre-flop, but not as bad as some of your lucky opponents in the latter hands.

This is the kind of thing I initially suspected when you posted your stats, you're running bad in big pots. It doesn't take much over 10K hands for a solid winner to go on a losing spell.

Re: My first 10k hands *WARNING* stats
 

[ QUOTE ]
position stats are posted, but i can't find the tab in pter where it shows me standard deviation. i thought it was under 'more detail' but i dunno.


[/ QUOTE ]

No you were correct, and already posted your positional stats, my bad.

Everything looks solid. The only thing would be that maybe you want to ease up with the the number of hands in middle position (#2 and #3 at 6 max tables). But overall it looks like you are playing preflop solidly....playing quality hands and enough raised pots so that your opponents won't be able to put you on anything specifically.

I don't know if you have done so, but I would go through your 10,000 hands and start analyzing the top 10 or 20 hands on each street for pot odds. This should tell you if you are just getting unlucky or if you are making some blatant errors that keep you from being a winning player.

Re: My first 10k hands *WARNING* stats
 

[ QUOTE ]
the more i look over these hands the more i realize i run bad in big pots, just like in holdem =D here's a few, just for fun...

[/ QUOTE ]

Also, as a word of warning your analysis needs to be unbiased.

What I've done: in pokertracker go through and take the top 10 biggest pots you were involved in, i.e. you put in a significant amount of money. This has to be done in a 110% unbiased way. Decide on the critera before you do to the analysis.

[Game Notes]
[Get All]
[Pot] -&gt; click to sort and then pull out the ones that you had large positive or negative net numbers.

[Game #] each hand pops up.
[Playback hand] Go through and calculate the amount of money you put into the pot and your pot equity at each step. (PT links now to twodimes.net to speed this process.)

Compare how much you should have won over these hands vs how much you actually did. These big hands greatly skew your results away from your true winrate and this analysis should help give you a better idea of your true winrate.

Sounds like a lot of work, but you should be able to do 10 hands in an hour.

Re: My first 10k hands *WARNING* stats
 

[ QUOTE ]

Also, as a word of warning your analysis needs to be unbiased.

This has to be done in a 110% unbiased way. Decide on the critera before you do to the analysis.


[/ QUOTE ]
I like this idea but it sounds impossible to do this in an unbiased way. The results are massively biased by the fact that you can only see hands that went to showdown.

Re: My first 10k hands *WARNING* stats
 

I don't know about "massively". A very high portion of the big pots will make it to showdown just because someone usually ends up all-in at one point or another.

Your main problem is deep stacked players who fold on the turn/river. Consider what they likely had when you make your analysis.

Re: My first 10k hands *WARNING* stats
 

your main problem is when you fold to deep stacked players on the turn or river, and you don't know if you got outplayed or not.

Re: My first 10k hands *WARNING* stats
 

[ QUOTE ]

I like this idea but it sounds impossible to do this in an unbiased way. The results are massively biased by the fact that you can only see hands that went to showdown.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let me clarify my protocol to make sure we are all on the same page
I mean that you should pick a set of hands you want to look at, i.e. the first 10,000 hands for the OP.

Then sort by the biggest pots and scroll down selecting the hands that you committed a lot of money into. Let's say at least 20 BB for argument's sake.

Take the top 10 or top 20 hands that meet this criteria.

Yes, this will introduce a bias, but I would guess that some large percent (x) of your winrate is determined by a small percent (y) of your hands where you commit more than (z) BB per pot. Folded hands with less than z BBs won't change the results much.

Unless you played a very very large percentage of hands and called a PSB on every flop and your game had very small pots, I don't think any of the larger hands where you put in &lt;20BB will end up affecting your winrate or standard deviation much.

But this is all supposition, I've never tested out these theories.

Re: My first 10k hands *WARNING* stats
 

[ QUOTE ]
your main problem is when you fold to deep stacked players on the turn or river, and you don't know if you got outplayed or not.

[/ QUOTE ]

Also I would add that this deepstack problem is unlikely to be a problem for the OP, but would be for you in a live game or higher stakes games online where it seems often the average stack size is greater than the max buyin (if table not infested with shortstackers).

Re: My first 10k hands *WARNING* stats
 

I definitely think looking at the big pots is important (and I do it myself), but something from Ed Miller has always stuck with me. This post was about small stakes limit, but the concept is valid for any game I'm sure.

Sorry to compound the OP's self-analysis, but it's really easy to lose perspective, especially if it's so easy for one to say something like "I run bad in big pots..." And we've all lost perspective at some point or another, isn't that what tilt is all about?

Re: My first 10k hands *WARNING* stats
 

[ QUOTE ]
I definitely think looking at the big pots is important (and I do it myself), but something from Ed Miller has always stuck with me. This post was about small stakes limit, but the concept is valid for any game I'm sure.

Sorry to compound the OP's self-analysis, but it's really easy to lose perspective, especially if it's so easy for one to say something like "I run bad in big pots..." And we've all lost perspective at some point or another, isn't that what tilt is all about?

[/ QUOTE ]

In a few sentences you pretty much added nothing.

Re: My first 10k hands *WARNING* stats
 

[ QUOTE ]
In a few sentences you pretty much added nothing.

[/ QUOTE ]

That seems harsh. Did you read the link I posted? Cliffs Notes:

Say you find ten examples of a leak in your 10k hands of big decisions in big pots where they cost you an average of 50 BB's apiece. Wow, that leak has cost you five buy-ins.

Now you also have a leak that only cost you 1 BB each time you did it, but you happen to have done it 1,000 times. All of a sudden you've stumbled upon a ten buy-in leak in your game.

Just looking at big pots will cause you to miss these "small" leaks that add up to a much larger loss.

By all means look at the big pots/big decisions, but don't lose track of all the tiny decisions you have to make much more often.

Re: My first 10k hands *WARNING* stats
 

I think the point of troll's and the other's analysis was to help him identify some of his "macro leaks" to see if he is a losing player or not. The fine tuning of those "micro leaks" is much more tedious and won't help the op in his desired goal IMO. He's looking for ways to see if he's profitable at the game and a few major things to change. Not specific pots in which he could be saving a bet.

In looking at your stats I think you definitely need to crank up the AF (aggression factor). Raise more pf and and bet more flops. It seems like you tend to call alot to showdown and only tend to re-pop it once you are holding the nuts

Re: My first 10k hands *WARNING* stats
 

I think these "micro" leaks can be as damaging (or more) to the win rate as the "macro" leaks are.

Let's pretend that a player will automatically limp in with any Axxx when given the chance. But once the flop hits they play that hand perfectly every time from that point on. This would be a "micro" leak in that it only costs a fraction of a BB every time they do it, but it would happen so often that it would add up to a signifcant reduction in BB/100. Just where this would stack up in reducing win rate is obviously debatable, but to regard consideration of this as worth "pretty much... nothing" is ridiculous.

I'm not suggesting OP is doing anything this flagrant, but in any beginner's game (including my own I'm sure) there are going to be plays similar to this that don't show up in the raw stats, but could have huge implications on their win rate.

Re: My first 10k hands *WARNING* stats
 

[ QUOTE ]
In looking at your stats I think you definitely need to crank up the AF (aggression factor). Raise more pf and and bet more flops. It seems like you tend to call alot to showdown and only tend to re-pop it once you are holding the nuts



[/ QUOTE ]

true.

Re: My first 10k hands *WARNING* stats
 

Just took a quick glance and it appears you aren't aggressive on the flop, turn, or river. Pre-flop looks fine. Would be useful for you to post hands, but for now you should probably thinking of the situations where you aren't betting for:

1. Value- People will call down with very marginal holdings on some boards
2. Deception-semi-bluff, which can also sometimes in omaha be for value.
3. Pure bluffs-people are willing to give up on some boards a lot more than you probably currently think

Re: My first 10k hands *WARNING* stats
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
In a few sentences you pretty much added nothing.

[/ QUOTE ]

That seems harsh. Did you read the link I posted?

[/ QUOTE ]

I did go to the link and I couldn't figure out what exactly your point was, and therefore I didn't find it helpful for this discussion.

Your Cliff Notes version is excellent and helps the discussion along.

I do not disagree with the idea that small leaks are important to plug. And if you can plug these leaks your winrate will go up by definition.

The argument on which leaks to plug first is interesting though. I offer no proof that large leaks are _more_ important to plug first than small leaks.

What I do believe fairly strongly though is that the analysis I suggest will minimize the effect of normal* distribution of big poker pots and help you determine exactly what your current winrate is. At 10,000 hands standard statistical analysis leave you with not very accurate information.

Re: My first 10k hands *WARNING* stats
 

I just wanted to say that in no way was my earlier post advocating that small leaks were insignificant. I completely agree that fixing these will increase your bb/100. I was merely trying to point out that, IMO, I think the op needs to fix some of his larger problems first (i.e. aggresion) before mulling over more of the situation specific stuff. My thinking is that the larger issues are easier (and quicker) to impletment a fix for, whereas the more specific parts of the game are harder to fine tune because you need to do alot of hand history analysis and what not to see where YOU PERSONALLY are having specific problems.

I guess "macro" for me was just meant to say problems everyone may have and "micro" was more along the lines of specific things YOU do that may cost you in your bottom line.

example:
MACRO: Low aggresion factor (many people have this and i believe it is easily remedied)


MICRO: (as previous poster said) Always limping Axxx pf, but playing well post-flop.
The analysis of this leak is harder to determine because you need to know what types of starting requirements you hold for your game, positional considerations, etc. A quick fix is not often found here.

(I hope that made it a little clearer)

Re: My first 10k hands *WARNING* stats
 

I think we were all misunderstanding each other for awhile. The bottom line here is that just by searching for leaks you have done more than most players will ever do, and that goes a long way.

Every new effort to fix your game will make you better at fixing it as well. And as expected the advice in this and many other threads is very helpful, especially to beginners. Even if it doesn't specifically teach someone what's wrong with their game it will go a long way towards teaching them how to think when trying to fix their game.