UTG with A8o and my last chance...
 

...to push with good fold equity. In less than a minute the blinds will be 100/200.

I'm fairly certain pushing is -$ev from from a pure ICM standpoint. If I get lucky enough to steal the blinds here I'll have more chances to steal for one round with the blinds at 100/200. If I fold, I have to wait for a big hand that probably won't come in time.

I am a little lost as to guidelines for what kind of hands to push here. Surely we can't just wait for something that gives us a +.05% $ev edge if we push. Should we add the hands that are down to 0.0% edge? Or do we need to gamble even more?

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t75/t150
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Hero: t1135
UTG+1: t1740
MP1: t1917
MP2: t1335
MP3: t733
CO: t174
Button: t2685
SB: t3028
BB: t753

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is UTG with 8sAh

Re: UTG with A8o and my last chance...
 

Ooops mis-read the hand, thought the blinds were already 100-200. I think that makes a bit of a difference and I'm probably going to fold.

Re: UTG with A8o and my last chance...
 

This is a fold. You simply can't push A-rag through this many villains unless desperately short. Although you are short, you still have life. Get through the blinds and hope to find a better spot.

Better spot = better hand, or good position to open from.

Re: UTG with A8o and my last chance...
 

[ QUOTE ]
This is a fold. You simply can't push A-rag through this many villains unless desperately short. Although you are short, you still have life. Get through the blinds and hope to find a better spot.

Better spot = better hand, or good position to open from.

[/ QUOTE ]

You may be right about A80 specifically, but aren't there some hands here that I can't justify pushing here from an ICM standpoint but can justify from a standpoint of the need to keep my stack size healthy enough to steal later?

Re: UTG with A8o and my last chance...
 

You didn't misread, they aren't at 100/200 yet but they will be the time I finish going through them.

Re: UTG with A8o and my last chance...
 

[ QUOTE ]
You didn't misread, they aren't at 100/200 yet but they will be the time I finish going through them.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, the more and more I think about this hand: it's a fold, blinds going up or not.

Re: UTG with A8o and my last chance...
 

With 100/200 blinds you still have folding equity with 800 chips.

Re: UTG with A8o and my last chance...
 

[ QUOTE ]
With 100/200 blinds you still have folding equity with 800 chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. So, you don't need to be taking -EV spots yet.

Re: UTG with A8o and my last chance...
 

Right now (at 75/150) your M is 5. Provided your stack size remains the same, at the 100/200 your M drops to 3.8, so I understand wanting to push.

However, you have a mediocre hand in horrible position. Also, you have a decent stack size. Your M is low, but so is the rest of the table. The big stack will barely have an M of 10 once the new level hits.

I wait for a better spot.

Re: UTG with A8o and my last chance...
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
With 100/200 blinds you still have folding equity with 800 chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. So, you don't need to be taking -EV spots yet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: UTG with A8o and my last chance...
 

It's not your last chance...you will have 900 chips after the blinds, and because of the other stack sizes you still have significant FE. Clear fold.