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-   -   ($10) I get in trouble from the sb (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=17978)

Slim Pickens 01-23-2006 01:16 PM

Re: ($10) I get in trouble from the sb
 
In order from best to worst:

1) Fold to the bet. even though yopu may have a +chip EV situation, I doubt that edge is even enough to make it +$EV to call the bet. To talk ICM (at least qualitatively), the chips you could win here are worth less than the chips you could lose. Folding might be a small mistake, but playing a large, potentially multiway pot with a marginal hand makes it easy make big mistakes. At the 11's, your opponents will make enough big maistakes of their own, so you don't need to push edges this small.

2) Check-raise the flop. The button's bet could be a pure positional bet, or it could be real. A check-raise of a bet immediately to your right forces the field to call a big chunk of their stacks, and even low-limit players usually figure out to fold middle pair to a big check-raise. If the button's bet is purely positional, you might take the pot right there. You might also clean up a lot of your outs by getting overcards to fold, and if any of those are diamonds, you've cleansed yourself of the flush redraw. I think the check-raise is only slightly worse than folding. Some may think it's better.

3) Call the flop. All this does is let everyone call behind you with weak made hands and odds for crappy draws that beat you, like Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]x[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Large pot + multiway + marginal cEV = bad for you.

After the flop call, the turn leaves you with a hard decision (why I dislike the flop call...). The donking line seems like a decent one, as does a check-raise of a small bet. If his bet is large enough that you think he'll think he's committed to this pot if you go all-in, then you have to fold. Most opponents at the 11's aren't getting away from QT here, so you're drawing to your (9+4+3) 16 outs. You may barely have odds to do so, but again, marginal cEV is usually -$EV in a tournament.


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