Another Endgame Satellite Hand (call w/ QQ?)

LearnedfromTV · #1 04-06-2006, 06:18 PM

This is a FPP Turbo sat to the Sunday 215. 11 seats, a bunch of FPP's to 12th. 19 left. I am around 10th (edit: actually more like 7th/8th... the several of us bunched near 30K is like top 9). There are only a couple true short stacks, most of the shorter stacks on other tables are in the 10-20K range. Blinds are huge, someone is pushing every hand. Pushes generally aren't getting called. I think AK or JJ is an easy fold, KK an easy push. And here I am with QQ:

Avg Stack was ~ 23K.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t8000 (7 handed) internettexasholdem.com

MP2 (t17573)
CO (t16506)
Hero (t30060)
SB (t32197)
BB (t49736)
UTG (t28674)
MP1 (t31800)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP2 raises to t17173, 1 fold, 

Hero....

illegit · #2 04-06-2006, 06:23 PM

You're on a M of about 2.5, but then apparently everyone is too. Still 8 to a seat and you're going to have to see at least a showdown or 2 before then if you want to make it. Pusher has 2 BBs, think you have to call.

Marwan · #3 04-06-2006, 06:26 PM

must call this one.. you're not in a position to fold anything.. With regular blind intervals you can play more cautiously but with the Turbo sats where everyone is bunched up together and clinging for survival I think this is way too strong of a hand.. and I probably call with JJ and AK

SoCalPat · #4 04-06-2006, 06:28 PM

He's a short stack, and you've got him covered. It seems unlikely that you can fold your way into the top 11. You're not out of it if you lose here, but you're in fantastic shape if you win.

I'd also think a short stack would like to invite some action, rather than be content with the blinds because he'll likely need more than that to get into the top 11. He doesn't have AA or KK. The only hand you really fear here is AK -- everything else you cold crush. Call.

LearnedfromTV · #5 04-06-2006, 06:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
and I probably call with JJ and AK

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Interesting.

I'm not much of a sat guy. I'm trying to get my feet wet with these FPP's for future satellite endeavors. Don't really have a clue. Just seems like 30K is usually enough to get me there, winning the hand guarantees, losing puts me at one orbit and having to get lucky. My intuition is I need significantly better than a coin flip, whichb is why I say fold AK/JJ, which are probably coin flips against the push range. Especially when I can push myself at some point and pick up a ton of chips with a lot less risk.

I think I was more like 7th/8th, not 10th, btw. DOubt it matters much.

LearnedfromTV · #6 04-06-2006, 06:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]

I'd also think a short stack would like to invite some action, rather than be content with the blinds because he'll likely need more than that to get into the top 11. He doesn't have AA or KK.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh??

His push is a minraise. What's he doing with AA/KK? Flatcalling? Really doubt it.

A_Junglen · #7 04-06-2006, 06:36 PM

It's very close on whether or not you can fold into the seat, so I'm leaning towards pushing. MP2 does not have to have much to push here.

SoCalPat · #8 04-06-2006, 06:39 PM

Are you saying you've never seen a short stack limp with AA or KK to maximize the gain he can get out of the hand?

LearnedfromTV · #9 04-06-2006, 06:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
It's very close on whether or not you can fold into the seat, so I'm leaning towards pushing. MP2 does not have to have much to push here.

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I don't think anyone's thinking about folding into a seat. Isn't it more a question of the difference between calling a push here (knowing we see a showdown) and being able to pick up a lot of chips later with our own push and (usually) no showdown?

LearnedfromTV · #10 04-06-2006, 06:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Are you saying you've never seen a short stack limp with AA or KK to maximize the gain he can get out of the hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not impossible, just not likely when he's this short in a satellite. It'd be a horrible satellite play to encourage a three-way limped pot w/ the blinds when you can get heads up v BB. Also, no one is pushing over the top b/c he's obviously calling and everyone would immediately put him on AA (and being a pretty big donkey about it) or a slim chance of not AA and being the biggest donkey ever.