Adjust bubble strat for horrible players?

[Slappy002]

Given the poor quality of most $22 sit and goers, I question how +EV it is to apply correct bubble strategy in certain situations.

Let's take this situation for example. I had been playing typical tight aggro mostly push/fold since 50/100, pushing some marginal holdings but very few outright steals.

BB is a moron table coach tight passive berater.

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

CO (t1070)
Button (t5382)
Hero (t4785)
BB (t2263)

Preflop: Hero is in SB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">CO folds</font>, <font color="gray">Button folds</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to t4785 (All-in)</font>, BB calls t2063 (All-in)

I'd say BB needs 77-AA to call here. He showed KQ and took the pot.

How do you adjust your bubble strat for idiots? Is it as simple as just adjusting your calling ranges downwards? Or do you continue to push any 2 and let them make the horrible calls and take the -EV that comes with it?

[beeyjay]

the EV of your push is based on their calling range not the "correct" calling range.

[Nick B.]

You risked 2138 to win 400 with 25o...LOL

edit: I noticed that this was pokerstars and they have an ante.

[AlphaWice]

actually I dont believe he needs 77+ here, LOL

[RedBull]

I never push this. Too small blinds. Just fold and tell him "I won't raise you with crap". Well don't say it in the chat, but he will get it.

[Blarg]

I notice that at the 11s, KQ is very frequently a calling hand. I get called with it all the time.

I think you have a lot of BB here to be pushing any two.

If this guy is at the preset for LOOSE, you could be looking at +0.3%, but if he's looser still, you could be looking at a pretty nasty -0.5%. This is definitely high stakes gambling, especially since the very next hand takes the CO down to less than 4.5 BB, and the hand after that drops him to less than 4 BB if he doesn't make a successful push(or get good cards). He's in deep trouble.

I can see the logic of pushing -- BB might not want to call since CO could be going out so soon. But I've seen people call with KQ so many times by now, I wouldn't be surprised by it at all. I think it's fairly standard actually, at least at these levels.

[Slappy002]

[ QUOTE ]
You risked 2163 to win 300 with 25o...LOL

[/ QUOTE ]

How bad a push is it if we only get called by 77-AA? I'm too tired to do an ICM calculation and I dont have SNGPT. I think my error in the hand was not adjusting for BBs idiocy. If viewed in a vaccuum I think the push stands on it's own merit.
Ah well, live and learn.

[Shillx]

I would push all day long at the 215's w/o a read. Sometimes you get burned by someone who thinks they "caught" you with something like AT, but that is life.

Of course don't push if you know he is calling wide. Also don't push if the typical low limit STTer calls wide in this spot. It is a +EV push in theory but theory doesn't always find its way to the poker table.

[RedBull]

If you think he will only call with 77+ (which he wont) it's a 0,7% push. Keep in mind that at 11s, players that see any broadways, any Ace with atleast over 7 kicker or pair will call you, he won't think that CO is at 1000 chips most of the time. Some players do this and if you have seent his player to be good and know he knows about CO, you should just raise it the first time. Exploitable? Sure, but it's at the 11s and he won't come over you with garbage.

[Blarg]

Isn't the point though that so many people will call with far, far less than 77-AA? Predictably so? Looking at these things in a vaccuum doesn't work.

Or to quote beejay above, "the EV of your push is based on their calling range not the "correct" calling range. "