Shaky top pair

buhler26 · #1 03-24-2006, 03:50 PM

Only been at the table an orbit or so, no real reads. I think the river is easy, but what about the turn call?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 2 folds, MP1 calls, 2 folds, CO calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG calls, MP1 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB bets, UTG calls, MP1 calls, CO raises, Hero 3-bets, BB folds, UTG folds, MP1 calls, CO caps, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (12.25 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP1 checks, CO bets, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

River: (15.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP1 bets, CO calls, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 17.25 BB
Main Pot: 17.25 BB, between CO and MP1.

gopnik · #2 03-24-2006, 04:10 PM

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Only been at the table an orbit or so, no real reads. I think the river is easy, but what about the turn call?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 2 folds, MP1 calls, 2 folds, CO calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG calls, MP1 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB bets, UTG calls, MP1 calls, CO raises, Hero 3-bets, BB folds, UTG folds, MP1 calls, CO caps, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (12.25 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP1 checks, CO bets, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

River: (15.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP1 bets, CO calls, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 17.25 BB
Main Pot: 17.25 BB, between CO and MP1.

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would be nice to have a read on CO, but I call the turn too because he could be doing this with 2 pair thus you have a decent number of outs against him.
I think river fold is good although MP1 is an idiot, he should have gone for a c/r.

Nick Royale · #3 03-24-2006, 04:16 PM

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I think river fold is good although MP1 is an idiot, he should have gone for a c/r.

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Betting the river with a flush or J is crucial.

gopnik · #4 03-24-2006, 04:27 PM

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I think river fold is good although MP1 is an idiot, he should have gone for a c/r.

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Betting the river with a flush or J is crucial.

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really? don't you think that CO will bet again, hero will call and you'll be able to c/r both of them a big majority of the time?
Betting out the river screams completed draw and allows hero to get away.

Nick Royale · #5 03-24-2006, 04:28 PM

COs range on the turn:
JT(16 combos): 0 outs
99(3): 0
88(3): 0
Q9(6): 3
Q8(6): 6
98(9): 9

This gives 3.1 outs on average. Often our A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] outs will be dead to a fd which seems to be a likely hand for MP1. Plus the combos of Q9/Q8/98 probably should be discounted some. If discounted by 33% we only have 2.75, probably not more than 2.5 given the risk of MP1 having a fd.

Unless you think CO might have gotten aggressive with a fd I would just fold this turn.

KinkyKid · #6 03-24-2006, 04:30 PM

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I think river fold is good although MP1 is an idiot, he should have gone for a c/r.

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Betting the river with a flush or J is crucial.

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really? don't you think that CO will bet again, hero will call and you'll be able to c/r both of them a big majority of the time?
Betting out the river screams completed draw and allows hero to get away.

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River puts four to the straight and three to the flush on the board. Probably not a good time to go for the check-raise. Are you betting this river if you are CO?

gopnik · #7 03-24-2006, 04:33 PM

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I think river fold is good although MP1 is an idiot, he should have gone for a c/r.

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Betting the river with a flush or J is crucial.

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really? don't you think that CO will bet again, hero will call and you'll be able to c/r both of them a big majority of the time?
Betting out the river screams completed draw and allows hero to get away.

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River puts four to the straight and three to the flush on the board. Probably not a good time to go for the check-raise. Are you betting this river if you are CO?

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depends on my hand, but if I can fold to a c/r from MP1 then yes

Nick Royale · #8 03-24-2006, 04:34 PM

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I think river fold is good although MP1 is an idiot, he should have gone for a c/r.

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Betting the river with a flush or J is crucial.

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really? don't you think that CO will bet again, hero will call and you'll be able to c/r both of them a big majority of the time?
Betting out the river screams completed draw and allows hero to get away.

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He's been calling 4 bets on the flop on the only reasonable drawing hand he can have is a fd. Now the river brings a 3rd [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and 4 to a straight. Unless anyone have made the straight (or already have had it) this will get checked through very often. I prefer betting.