Friggin freeroll

HomerJay · #1 07-20-2007, 03:23 AM

I had one too, but I knew he had the better of it. Can I back off here?

PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha High, $1.00 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($147.45)
UTG ($180.85)
Hero ($313.55)
CO ($64.90)
Button ($18)
SB ($216)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises to $3.5, CO calls $3.50, 1 fold, SB calls $3, BB calls $2.50.

Flop: ($14) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, CO checks.

Turn: ($14) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB bets $10, BB folds, Hero raises to $43.3, CO folds, SB raises to $143.2, Hero raises to $310.05, SB calls $69.30 (All-In).

River: ($439) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $439

JavaNut · #2 07-20-2007, 04:50 AM

There is a great chance that he has something like AJTx, but there are only 4 outs for him to win with a better straight. He might have two spades for a flush draw as well, giving him more outs. Lets us discount the 7 of spades which will give you a boat, leaving 8 outs for a flush.

So at worst 12 cards will see you loose, 4 will see you win (any 9 or 7) and the remaining 32 makes it a tie.

Going all-in you get about 1.4-1 pot odds. Your changes of winning are 4/48 + .5*32/48 = 34% which is about 1.9-1, which means the pot odds aren't sufficient in the worst case. As you cannot be sure it is the worst case you are very close.

But what about just calling him on the turn with the intension to fold to any JT or spade (except 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]) on the river? You would then get 2-1 pot odds which are ok. And he will not fold to a river bet if a 9 or 7 comes. That would leave you with a stack of $170 in third and lots to play for still.

But you still have to consider that he has a range of hands not just AJTx specifically.

alavet · #3 07-20-2007, 04:55 AM

hum humm
look,
___if you gonna call him anyway AND there is no chances he fold after you reraise
its better to just call
and if spade comes you push
there is an opportunity he fold
and you get the pot instead split

you probably never back off here
hes just taking freeroll

JavaNut · #4 07-20-2007, 05:23 AM

How about thinking a bit ahead when we consider his turn bet. If we run into a bigger hand than our own and need to let go, we would like to have $200+ left in our stack.

Firstly we do not raise the full pot in response to his bet on the turn, we only raise to about $25. If we get reraised we call, but much cheaper than now. If he reraises we assume the worst and as I suggested earlier fold if any spade or JT comes on the river.

alavet · #5 07-20-2007, 06:04 AM

weak play