JJ overpair plus OESD. No read. Shove flop, or do this?

[SomethingClever]

No read... shove flop? I figure I have very little fold equity.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$0.50/$1 Blinds
6 Players
LegoPoker HH Converter

SB: $99
BB: $35
UTG: $53.10
MP: $36.05
CO: $98.50
<font color="black">Hero (BTN): $98</font>

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 Players)
UTG calls $1, MP calls $1, CO folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $6</font>, SB calls $5.50, 2 folds, MP calls $5

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($20) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
SB checks, MP checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $15</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to $30</font>, MP folds, Hero calls $15

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($80) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets all-in for $63</font>, Hero calls all-in for $62
Uncalled bet of $1 returned to SB

[Mat]

Calling on the flop seems ok, but I'd fold the turn cause the flop check-minraise is frightening, I think you have 4 outs at best.

[Rainclouds]

If you think you have little fold equity, you have no reason to shove the flop.
You have to fold on the turn though because of what Mat said.

[BombayBadboy]

If you figure you have little fold equity, you also have to figure that you are behind if you play it like this.

I think your equity on the flop looks like this:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

20,790 games 0.031 secs 670,645 games/sec

Board: Th 9d 8s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.157% 46.41% 00.75% 9648 156.00 { JdJh }
Hand 1: 52.843% 52.09% 00.75% 10830 156.00 { AA, TT-77 }


---


On the turn it looks like this against the same range:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

924 games 0.031 secs 29,806 games/sec

Board: Th 9d 8s 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.909% 40.91% 00.00% 378 0.00 { JdJh }
Hand 1: 59.091% 59.09% 00.00% 546 0.00 { AA, TT-77 }


---

So obviously with the odds you were getting you played it correct I think. I'd rather push the edge on the flop though with the money in the pot providing you odds.

[illuminati]

[ QUOTE ]
Calling on the flop seems ok, but I'd fold the turn cause the flop check-minraise is frightening, I think you have 4 outs at best.

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

OP,

I really don't mind either. I usually misplay these type of hands.

[The White Rabbit]

What about this Bombay:

Board: Ts 9h 8d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.778% 30.73% 03.05% 124107 12330.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 66.222% 63.17% 03.05% 255153 12330.00 { TT-88, QJs, J7s, T8s+, 98s, 76s, QJo, J7o, T8o+, 98o, 76o }

Board: Ts 9h 8d 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 22.527% 21.19% 01.34% 3804 240.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 77.473% 76.14% 01.34% 13668 240.00 { TT-88, QJs, J7s, T8s+, 98s, 76s, QJo, J7o, T8o+, 98o, 76o }

Or, if you add TJ:

Board: Ts 9h 8d 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 27.703% 25.74% 01.97% 5028 384.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 72.297% 70.33% 01.97% 13740 384.00 { TT-88, QJs, JTs, J7s, T8s+, 98s, 76s, QJo, JTo, J7o, T8o+, 98o, 76o }

If he'd play any pair + OESD this way, you can call (need 31% equity on turn):

Board: Ts 9h 8d 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.888% 32.93% 02.96% 7476 672.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 64.112% 61.15% 02.96% 13884 672.00 { TT-88, QJs, J7s+, T8s+, 98s, 76s, QJo, J7o+, T8o+, 98o, 76o }

[Massimo]

[ QUOTE ]
If you figure you have little fold equity, you also have to figure that you are behind if you play it like this.

I think your equity on the flop looks like this:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

20,790 games 0.031 secs 670,645 games/sec

Board: Th 9d 8s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.157% 46.41% 00.75% 9648 156.00 { JdJh }
Hand 1: 52.843% 52.09% 00.75% 10830 156.00 { AA, TT-77 }


---


On the turn it looks like this against the same range:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

924 games 0.031 secs 29,806 games/sec

Board: Th 9d 8s 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.909% 40.91% 00.00% 378 0.00 { JdJh }
Hand 1: 59.091% 59.09% 00.00% 546 0.00 { AA, TT-77 }


---

So obviously with the odds you were getting you played it correct I think. I'd rather push the edge on the flop though with the money in the pot providing you odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

This range is terrible.

[BombayBadboy]

Hmm I might have been a bit to optimistic with my first query. Yours is a real worst case scenario though. People do stupid things, there is no need to just assign nut hands or near nut hands for villain.

Nah, I think you are right and this might be a fold. His c/r looks very strong In a multiway pot, too. Fold might be correct.

HU I'd shove all day though.

Alsom make your decision on the flop.

[BombayBadboy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you figure you have little fold equity, you also have to figure that you are behind if you play it like this.

I think your equity on the flop looks like this:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

20,790 games 0.031 secs 670,645 games/sec

Board: Th 9d 8s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.157% 46.41% 00.75% 9648 156.00 { JdJh }
Hand 1: 52.843% 52.09% 00.75% 10830 156.00 { AA, TT-77 }


---


On the turn it looks like this against the same range:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

924 games 0.031 secs 29,806 games/sec

Board: Th 9d 8s 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.909% 40.91% 00.00% 378 0.00 { JdJh }
Hand 1: 59.091% 59.09% 00.00% 546 0.00 { AA, TT-77 }


---

So obviously with the odds you were getting you played it correct I think. I'd rather push the edge on the flop though with the money in the pot providing you odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

This range is terrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thnx for elaborating why. Add something to the discussion or don't say anything plz.

[illuminati]

Massimo, you are a douche bag.

Bombay,

The range you posted was very tight, disproportionally so. Thus, your equity calcs are going to be off. WhiteRabbit's looks good.