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Maybe this question has been posted before (if it has, ignore me), but I was just thinking about it:
Let's say you're heads up at the WSOP ME, playing for $10+ million. 2nd is $5 million. You outlasted a field of 9000 players. You qualified for the ME on FullTiltPoker and will make an additional $10 million with the win. BTW, ASSUME THAT YOU ARE AN AVERAGE JOE AND $20 MILLION IS A LIFE-CHANGING AMOUNT. You know your opponent is an amateur who qualified online and plays goofy. But basically you know you are +EV against him. You have 46 million chips. Your opponent has 44 million in chips. Blinds are 150,000 - 300,000 (keep it simple, no antes). Level just started and last 1 hour, 30 minutes. You are on the small blind and dealt [As Ac]. Opponent raises to 1.5 million on the button. You re-raise to 4.5 million. Opponent moves ALL IN. What do you do? OK, I know maybe the obvious answer is call, but I raise this question because you have around 140 BBs left and you know you are +EV on the opponent. You may tell me there isn't a better spot than here, but you are playing for a once-in-a-lifetime situation, $15 million difference (maybe more based on sponsorships, etc). So I thought that you might throw out the idea of always making correct long-run decisions because there isn't likely another situation like this to come up every again. I almost think that I would rather give this spot up just play small pots and chip at him knowing I can beat him and find an even BETTER spot (with more than TWO out of SEVEN cards of my hand out) instead of risking your once-in-a-lifetime moment. OK, so maybe he has an underpair like KK. Around 18% of the time you are going to get sucked out on. EIGHTEEN percent for a situation for $15 million. That seems like a lot to me. Maybe he has AA. Risking your tournament life on a chop? Maybe he has AK. Best case scenario, but he is still going to win it nearly 12% of the time if he is suited. Thoughts? |
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