NL50 AA facing turn shove

[Lordy]

No real reads, just stats : BB is like 36/9/1 over 80 hands, seemed kinda donkish overall (he min-reraised me with AKo pf, so I'm gonna guess he 3-bets QQ+ at least some of the time)

Party Poker NL50
Total number of players : 6

SB ( $ 30.88 USD )
BB ( $ 33.61 USD )
UTG ( $ 13.11 USD )
Lordy ( $ 92.90 USD )
CO ( $ 50.50 USD )
Button ( $ 58.20 USD )


Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2.5</font>, CO calls, 2 folds, BB calls, UTG calls

Flop: ($9.75) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $7</font>, CO folds, BB calls, SB folds

Turn: ($23.05) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB is all-in ($24.11)</font>, Hero ?


Bleh, dunno what is right here.

[Kimo White Devil]

Call

he will do that with AJ, TJ maybe JQo, or JQh, JKhto balance the time he hit either his set or 2nd pair on turn to make this call profitable

[phil iveyND]

I definitely think this a fold.maybe im weak tight though im interested to see what others think.

[ciki57]

I call. Pot odds look good and I think it's very likely that he has some kind of combo draw (flush + straight, straight + pair...)

[Lordy]

I guess I'm weak... I thought it was close, and I didn't want to pay off a set/2pair, because that puts me on tilt...

Anyway, I stoved a very tight range (no draws) and I guess I still have to call :

Board: 9h 4h 8s Js
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.069% 36.21% 00.86% 924 22.00 { AhAs }
Hand 1: 62.931% 62.07% 00.86% 1584 22.00 { 88+, 44, J9s-J8s, 98s, J9o-J8o, 98o }

Adding some 1pair + draws makes the call even easier.

[gofishpoker]

Most of the time he has T9/JT/T8/Jx or some crap like that. Why would he bet here with straight/two pairs? I call here.

[RMLewis]

If he made his straight, you'd see a c/r by villain more often than an open push. I agree that he probably has one of the afforementioned drawing hands w/ a pair. In the even that he has two-pair, at least you got some re-draw outs on the river... this is a definite call

[kayfish77]

i dont have a clue what he has. whenever i see this line i get schooled by a set or 2 pair. its what the villain does instead of what they consider the super obvious flop check raise all in. people saying he does this with ace jack of jack queen arent considering how he gets to the turn. ace jack of hearts would do this but we have the ace of hearts. i dont think a random at 50 nl is floating us with ace jack high oop no matter how donkish he seems. i have no idea what he has, but people saying "call you probably have redraws" cant possibly be winning players. maybe 10hxh and he has some kind of monster draw? that makes sense given the action but i dont know. 10 jack of hearts? if you call make a note, thats a sick spot though. maybe he thinks he has more fold equity on the turn then check raising the flop? i dont really see too many hands the jack was likely to help that wouldnt want to get it all in on the flop but most people dont necesarily play optimally. but if you put him on 2 pair you have 30% equity and dont have the odds to draw, if you put him on a set you have 5% equity and dont have the odds to draw and if hes on a straight we have 0% equity and are drawing dead.

[catfish_01]

Kayfish: I've heard from many good players that people will push this turn with seemingly goofy hands. I know people don't like to believe their opponents think at micro limits, but the real interesting part here is that if he picks up a monster draw with whatever he called flop with, he may know his stack is going in anyway. That makes an open push more appealing to an opp.

I've also seen medium stacks do this sort of thing more often than a large stack. The more donkish or aggressive (and less nitty or passive) the opp, the more credit you have to give them for a hand that you have massive equity against.