4/180 Early shove-fest, what to do with AK?

[Zychion]

Early level in Stars 4/180. Nothing close to a read other than CO was mega-tilting from an earlier good beat (he donked off most of his chips, shoved past two hands) and nothing seen from button or SB. Almost 4k in the pot when the action comes back to me; good enough to call or are my outs most often counterfeited and lose to QQ+ more often than not? I tried to use Pokerstove to aid my decision but it was taking far too long to compute.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG+1 (t1690)
MP1 (t950)
Hero (t1550)
MP3 (t1680)
CO (t815)
Button (t1375)
SB (t1530)
BB (t1400)
UTG (t5550)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls t30, UTG+1 calls t30, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t120</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to t815</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t1375</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t1530</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, Hero says "wtf?"

[n3xxt]

ez fold in my mind even though button can be pushin pretty light here due to CO's crazyness its SB i would be worried about.

[Secret Squirrel]

I fold this. Three reraises says range for SB is QQ+.

[Sherman]

Don't know why people are saying fold. I call pretty quick here early in a 4/180. You can be pretty sure you have better than 25% equity in this pot.

[ QUOTE ]
I tried to use Pokerstove to aid my decision but it was taking far too long to compute.

[/ QUOTE ]

Use the Monte Carlo (simulation) feature rather than running all possible combinations.

[halpgr]

Your preflop raise was too low for the number of limpers. This showed weakness to the others who then attacked by coming over the top. I think a larger pf raise would have discouraged them from possibly making a play on you to chase you out and isolate CO which would leave you with an easier decision here.

If you had raised more preflop then everyone would know you're willing to take on tilting CO and they would likely only push truly premium hands. Still in this case while btn may be trying to isolate CO, SBs move is very strong. Still you're getting great pots odds so I'd lean toward a call.

[eigenvalue]

I would fold this every time. It may happen that you are up against AA or KK and even if not: You can be sure there's at least one pair out and you don't have your 6 outs to hit the board, because I assume that some K's or A's can be found in the hands of one or two other opponents. Not a good spot to gamble.

[Sherman]

[ QUOTE ]
I would fold this every time. It may happen that you are up against AA or KK and even if not: You can be sure there's at least one pair out and you don't have your 6 outs to hit the board, because I assume that some K's or A's can be found in the hands of one or two other opponents. Not a good spot to gamble.

[/ QUOTE ]

What if they all have pairs? It could be 66, some random hand from the CO, and QQ from the SB. In this case we are getting plenty of equity to call.

Hand ranges for CO - top 50% given OPs read.
Hand ranges for button - 66+, AJ+
Hand ranges for SB - TT+, AQs+

This a $4 tournament. People don't know what they are doing. Against 3 randoms (and one we know one is an idiot) in a $4 tournament, I'll put AK in everytime.

Dreaming up the worse case scenario doesn't make this -EV.

Here are some results from P-stove given the hands ranges above. Which are about the narrowest ranges I could really see these opponents having. I honestly believe they could be even wider.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 21.825% 17.08% 05.11% 139702 41799.67 { AhKd }
Hand 1: 17.121% 16.90% 00.52% 138165 4216.50 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J4s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K5o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T8o+, 98o }
Hand 2: 26.030% 24.58% 01.89% 200984 15487.00 { 66+, AJs+, AJo+ }
Hand 3: 35.024% 31.64% 03.98% 258688 32584.83 { TT+, AQs+, AKo }

[Zychion]

Thanks for the replies. I did indeed fold fearing I didn't have the outs to call. Given the general quality of play in these early rounds, I think I'll call and take my chances in future. For those interested, here are the results of the actual hand:

CO showed Kh 4d and won with a pair of Kings
Button showed 8h 8c
SB showed Th Ts

Sherm27, you were very close with the ranges you assigned, nice job. What's your Pokerstars name so I know who to steer clear of if we're ever at a table together?

[Fiksdal]

Raise to at least t150 preflop.

I think I probably take a gamble here, and call. If you win you'll get an awesome stack.

If you lose fire up another one.