Raise with A7o, BB leads into raiser on 542 flop

betgo · #1 03-01-2007, 01:41 PM

$100r, on the bubble. Villain is Annette_15.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t2000 (7 handed) internettexasholdem.com

SB (t14455)
BB (t62475)
UTG (t84793)
MP1 (t18194)
Hero (t66705)
CO (t32956)
Button (t7720)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises to t6000, 3 folds, BB calls t4000.

Flop: (t10600) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets t8000, Hero ???

WarDekar · #2 03-01-2007, 01:42 PM

Hero thinks for a bit, then makes it 18k-20k (10k-12k to go).

I should add I have no idea how Annette plays, but if this is a lower buy-in and someone tries to lead this flop to my PF raise, I'm re-raising and taking it down more often than not.

EDIT: The reason I say raise here, is because if Annette is like me, this seems like a pretty good flop to try and take down this pot without having any kind of hand. She could be on a flush draw, but if it is it's weak. Can she be on a straight? Not really. Can she have a set? I guess but why lead that flop? The most likely holding has to be an over pair or 2 overs with the flush draw. If you raise back, but small enough to make it seems like you're looking for action, she puts you either on a better flush draw or a higher PP. Both of those hands have her drawing dead essentially.

I make her kind of play kind of often in the lower rebuys, and you folding out makes that play profitable, as most people will fold this out. If you play back at her I think she lets it go.

Bakes · #3 03-01-2007, 01:42 PM

great bet by her, i fold. if we had a better ace i would probably shove

betgo · #4 03-01-2007, 03:50 PM

I folded. I thought it might be weak, but I am behind any pp and almost any ace.

WarDekar · #5 03-01-2007, 03:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I folded. I thought it might be weak, but I am behind any pp and almost any ace.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't think she might be floating on air here trying to take down a sizable pot on a weird flop?

Even if she does have a PP, a re-raise at least sends the message "My PP is bigger than yours"

The reason I don't push is because a push is screaming "I'm weak and want to take this down" and when you're called you're probably drawing very very slim if not dead. If you put in a little more than a min-raise though, it says "I'm not afraid of you, I want you in this pot, call me and let's go" and I have to believe she puts you on a decent PP or good flush draw with overs (and of course the 3 to the straight).

You don't think there's any chance she's folding to a 12k raise?

grafyx · #6 03-01-2007, 04:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
great bet by her, i fold. if we had a better ace i would probably shove

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How big of an ace would you need to shove? I kind of like a shove here because I think she has some sort of semi-bluff (either hearts or overcards) way more than she has a set/2 pr. I'm not sure how our kicker matters much unless you think she has 88-99 and is going to call our shove, then we get 3 more outs.

RonMexico · #7 03-01-2007, 04:16 PM

Who is Anette_15? Does she call HJ raises, then bet rag flops with air only to fold to a reraise? If not, we're in bad shape. She might have air, but that's the ONLY thing we can beat. More importantly, I think air is probably the only hand we are pushing out. I think it's a fold.

WarDekar · #8 03-01-2007, 04:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Who is Anette_15? Does she call HJ raises, then bet rag flops with air only to fold to a reraise? If not, we're in bad shape. She might have air, but that's the ONLY thing we can beat. More importantly, I think air is probably the only hand we are pushing out. I think it's a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think she could be folding a lot more than air here to a raise. I honestly don't know how she plays, and considering she's a good player this is probably a fold. Against weak players though, I think they let a LOT of hands go that have you beat, even dominated. Players don't like a raise PF and then get raised on their flop bet.

I'm probably massively swayed by the fact that I'm used to like $5-$22 rebuys and not $109+R against quality players. And I'm probably also swayed by the fact that I float air here against a weak player a lot. Although, clearly betgo is not a weak player, and nor is Annette.

I hate a shove here though. I think that's the worst play possible as you're pushing a lot of chips into a pot and she doesn't fold much that she wouldn't have folded to a smaller raise, in which case a small raise would've accomplished this. I also think she's calling a push more than a smaller raise.

If she calls the raise and checks the turn, I'm pushing. If she pushes the flop, I'm folding. If she calls the raise and pushes the turn, I'm folding. This is probably a HUGE leak in my game, but at least in lower buy-ins I've found plays like this to be a great way to pick up chips.

betgo · #9 03-01-2007, 04:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Who is Anette_15? Does she call HJ raises, then bet rag flops with air only to fold to a reraise? If not, we're in bad shape. She might have air, but that's the ONLY thing we can beat. More importantly, I think air is probably the only hand we are pushing out. I think it's a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]
She is one of the best tournament players on the Internet. OPR has her ranked 3rd on Stars and 40th on FT, with about $500K on profit, which is partly from multiple final tables in the WCOOP.

RonMexico · #10 03-01-2007, 04:32 PM

I guess my point was, do you really want to put 40% of your chips in against a player of this caliber when you have A7 high? I think the two most important questions here are "What does she know about your style of play" and "What does she think you know about her style of play?" If you can answer both of those questions, then maybe you can raise here sometimes.