TPTK - vs thinking TAG.

[matrix]

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
4 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $179.60
Hero: $49.35
SB: $56.05
BB: $41.15

Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#cc3333">Hero raises to $1.5</font>, SB calls $1.25, BB folds.

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($3.5, 2 players)
<font color="#cc3333">SB bets $3.35</font>, <font color="#cc3333">Hero raises to $10</font>, SB calls $6.65.

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($23.5, 2 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc3333">Hero ???</font>

Villain appears to be thinking TAG type 26/11/2 - after 50ish hands I've not seen him get out of line....

What should my line be and what range do you put villain on?

is my line so far OK?

[Spaded]

If he is a "thinking player", and if he hit a flush, he realises that a diamond on the river will kill his action, so he'll bet the turn with his flush and try to extract money from you before the board pairs or the 4th diamond shuts you down. He checked, so if he has a flush he is a donkey [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

So if he is "thinking", then the queen probably scared him.

It is quite possible that he hit a set, and is frightened by the flush on the board, so he wants to see a free card to boat up.

[cbloom]

He could have AK or KQ. He led into the PFR on a flushing flop, so I'm thinking it's less likely he's made the flush. It's possible he has a set and is playing it scared. I don't see a whole lot of hands that you beat after that turn. I think I check behind on the turn and call a small bet on the river if he leads.

[matrix]

I was thinking AQ/AK , didn't think about the set. As villain is pretty tight and so far has only seen me bet big when I SD premium hands maybe If I come out firing on this turn with a PSB I can take down this pot here...

[Fallen Hero]

[ QUOTE ]
I was thinking AQ/AK , didn't think about the set. As villain is pretty tight and so far has only seen me bet big when I SD premium hands maybe If I come out firing on this turn with a PSB I can take down this pot here...

[/ QUOTE ]

If he's a thinking tag I think the only way you're going to win this pot is by representing a flush (decide on the turn if he's good enough to laydown KQ, remember if he has a set you have to commit your stack, betting the turn and the river, $10 now, the rest on the river if the board doesn't pair)

EDIT: this is assuming you want to run a bluff at 50NL

[Iconoclastic]

Against an average opponent I would Half pot bet on the Turn and check down River and call a 1/2 pot bet on River. However...

Will a thinking TAG call a Flop raise with KQ on a draw heavy board??? I doubt it.

With a set he would reraise the Flop to kick draws out.

The way it was played highly suggests flush draw- semibluff then calling with implied odds.

Which dictates check down.

[matrix]

[ QUOTE ]
this is assuming you want to run a bluff at 50NL

[/ QUOTE ]

I am quite happy running bluffs at these limits - but only when I'm sure my opponent is good enough to lay down a hand after committing a decent # of chips facing some serious heat.

I think this villain is more than capable of such a laydown so a bluff here is a viable option.

and if I'm going to bluff then I am going to do it with my whole stack or not at all. Against "thinking" opponents who IMHO are the only ones you can successfully bluff anyway you can't give them a sniff of weakness or they'll just call you regardless.

[Fallen Hero]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
this is assuming you want to run a bluff at 50NL

[/ QUOTE ]

I am quite happy running bluffs at these limits - but only when I'm sure my opponent is good enough to lay down a hand after committing a decent # of chips facing some serious heat.

I think this villain is more than capable of such a laydown so a bluff here is a viable option.

and if I'm going to bluff then I am going to do it with my whole stack or not at all. Against "thinking" opponents who IMHO are the only ones you can successfully bluff anyway you can't give them a sniff of weakness or they'll just call you regardless.

[/ QUOTE ]

fully agreed

[matrix]

[ QUOTE ]
Will a thinking TAG call a Flop raise with KQ on a draw heavy board??? I doubt it.

With a set he would reraise the Flop to kick draws out.

The way it was played highly suggests flush draw- semibluff then calling with implied odds.

[/ QUOTE ]


I thought a little decided he probably has A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Kx or Qx - and is capable of laying down a set/straight here is I represent a made flush.

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($23.5, 2 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc3333">Hero bets $23.5</font>, <font color="#cc3333">SB raises all-in $44.55</font>

ah.

OK so I am likely drawing dead here at best - IF he has a set theres a slim chance I'll draw a K - if he has 2pair theres a slightly fatter chance I'll outdraw him - I'm pot committed here now tho aren't I? Is it worth $20 to discover what he has make appropriate notes and relearn a painful lesson about how you aren't supposed to back TPTK with an entire stack?

This lesson is really going to sink in one of these days...

[quarkncover]

Matrix-

Why did you make a full PSB bet on the turn?