5/10 I know he's FOS, but do I still have to fold?

bottomset · #1 02-09-2006, 07:22 PM

UTG is a really bad player
BB is a little tight tag 21/14 2.4 turn aggression

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 4 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is Button with 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (6.40 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG folds.

Turn: (4.20 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero

this just felt like a I picked up outs I bet type of thing

jba · #2 02-09-2006, 07:24 PM

yes. pot is tiny, he has like 57 outs if you're ahead, i'd fold it.

edit: nice avatar...

SomethingClever · #3 02-09-2006, 07:29 PM

1) You got some kind of a read on UTG? If not, I just call preflop.

2) I don't think he's FOS. Even if he is, as the other poster mentioned, he often has approximately eleventy billion outs.

bottomset · #4 02-09-2006, 07:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
yes. pot is tiny, he has like 57 outs if you're ahead, i'd fold it.

edit: nice avatar...

[/ QUOTE ]

its 5BB and if he has 15outs, I have 67% equity which is 3.33BB which is a lot of the pot

gutshot+FD+overcards is 19outs I have 58.6% equity, which is just under 3BB

OESD+FD+overcards is 23outs I have 50% equity there, thats 2.5BB

jba · #5 02-09-2006, 07:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
yes. pot is tiny, he has like 57 outs if you're ahead, i'd fold it.

edit: nice avatar...

[/ QUOTE ]

its 5BB and if he has 15outs, I have 67% equity which is 3.33BB which is a lot of the pot

gutshot+FD+overcards is 19outs I have 58.6% equity, which is just under 3BB

OESD+FD+overcards is 23outs I have 50% equity there, thats 2.5BB

[/ QUOTE ]

and if he's ahead you're toast. plus reverse implied odds.

edit: seriously though who is that in your avatar

bottomset · #6 02-09-2006, 07:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
1) You got some kind of a read on UTG? If not, I just call preflop.

2) I don't think he's FOS. Even if he is, as the other poster mentioned, he often has approximately eleventy billion outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

for some reason my reads got deleted, and I just readded them

worst case scenario when I'm ahead is he has T7, JT with a FD, for 2overcards(6), straight(6), flush(9) or 21outs, I have 54% equity against that

jba · #7 02-09-2006, 07:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
1) You got some kind of a read on UTG? If not, I just call preflop.

2) I don't think he's FOS. Even if he is, as the other poster mentioned, he often has approximately eleventy billion outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

for some reason my reads got deleted, and I just readded them

worst case scenario when I'm ahead is he has T7, JT with a FD, for 2overcards(6), straight(6), flush(9) or 21outs, I have 54% equity against that

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought worst case would be 99 [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

seriously though he doesn't have to be FOS here. he could easily have a pair.

bottomset · #8 02-09-2006, 07:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
yes. pot is tiny, he has like 57 outs if you're ahead, i'd fold it.

edit: nice avatar...

[/ QUOTE ]

its 5BB and if he has 15outs, I have 67% equity which is 3.33BB which is a lot of the pot

gutshot+FD+overcards is 19outs I have 58.6% equity, which is just under 3BB

OESD+FD+overcards is 23outs I have 50% equity there, thats 2.5BB

[/ QUOTE ]

and if he's ahead you're toast. plus reverse implied odds.

edit: seriously though who is that in your avatar

[/ QUOTE ]

no idea on the avatar, just some random pic I found a while ago

I know Im trashed when behind .. but I have no worse than 54% equity when ahead which is 2.6BB calling the turn costs 1BB .. I have decent overlay, i think this is pretty close either way

I am trying to find a little balance from the pure math, and the instinct of sorts that says he's betting to get me to fold a better hand

[ QUOTE ]
I thought worst case would be 99

seriously though he doesn't have to be FOS here. he could easily have a pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

oh yeah thats the worst, I was talking about when ahead but where villian has the most outs, anthing that is ahead is WA he should be c/r most1pair hands on the flop

he isn't FOS all the time, but I think he is a good chunk of the time

Gobgogbog · #9 02-09-2006, 07:45 PM

I call a lot of donkbets when they come from unexpected places , but I don't really know what to make of the UTG limp by a 21/14

bottomset · #10 02-09-2006, 08:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I call a lot of donkbets when they come from unexpected places , but I don't really know what to make of the UTG limp by a 21/14

[/ QUOTE ]

utg was a bad player he folded the flop
bb is the 21/14