Ragged AAxx, more action than I want

Cezar · #1 01-16-2007, 01:13 PM

Ragged aces fail to isolate, things turn ugly post-flop. I really was hoping to play this against the button. MP1 ruined the party.

PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha High, $1.00 BB (9 handed) UPF Handconverter

MP1 ($118.20)
MP2 ($28.05)
Hero ($141.70)
CO ($25.50)
Button ($81.20)
SB ($99.55)
BB ($58.70)
UTG ($73.75)
UTG+1 ($60)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 calls $1, 1 fold, Hero raises to $4, 1 fold, Button raises to $10, 2 folds, MP1 calls $9, Hero raises to $41.5, Button calls $31.50, MP1 calls $31.50.

MP1 is unknown. Button is a regular at this level, both full ring and 6-max. Seems to be a steady winner, but I think he could do better, too aggressive at full ring. He probably sees me as a nit. (Not entirely accurate, but rather close).

He knows that my raise does not mark me with AA. His re-raise is not neccesserely AA either, but he might think I don't know that. As a matter of fact, that's probably his plan - represent AA, and surprise me with a middle rundown if I play back.

At this point I am praying that MP1 wisely folds and lets me play heads up with the button. With button's stack size post-flop is automatic. No such luck.

Flop: ($126) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)

KQx is not the flop I want to see after pre-flop 4-bet gets called in 2 places. Club draw makes it even worse. At this point I really hate myself for not leaving room for post-flop play with my bare ace.

I used to auto-shove here, and against 90% of the players this is probably still right. With the button here, I have a different plan. He is not the type to take a free card when offered. So rather then shoving and giving him the chance to fold 6789, I'd rather check-call HIS auto-shove. Plus I get to see what MP1 is doing.

MP1 checks, Hero checks, Button bets $39.7 (All-In), MP1 raises to $76.7, Hero ?

Well, buttons shove was expected. WTF is MP1 still doing here ? Being behind doesn't bother me too much, I only need to win the pot 20% of the time to break even. The real question is, how often and how far behind am I ?

I wish I could call enough time to run some hands through the calculator, instead I had to settle for making some estimates in my head.

Between two of them there gotta be one flush draw. It is rather likely on dumb chance alone, even more likely since they both liked their hands pre- and post-flop. Also, I can't assume I have two aces left in the deck. With all the pre-flop action, one, possibly both are probably in their hands. I give myself 1 out to a set. So what are the possible scenarios ?

I am currently ahead with AA, dodging flush, straight and two pair draws. Given the pot odds, easy call.

I am behind two pairs. KQ alone doesn't bother me with these pot odds, but assuming I outdraw to trip deuces or aces up, I still have straight and flush re-draws to avoid. Depending on the redraws - marginal call to marginal fold.

I am behind QQ or KK. Despite the monster pot odds, easy fold.

So what do you think about this hand ? Should I have bothered 4-betting pre-flop with those aces ? And what about the tough spot on the flop ?

baggier · #2 01-17-2007, 01:35 AM

personally I would fold. You have probably marked your hand as AA to MP1. He would probably have a high hand to call first then to raise (KK, QQ, KQ etc). You tried the standard AA push and half the time it stalls. If he is bluffing then he deserves it. If he is stupid and drawing then take his money next time.

Professorn · #3 01-17-2007, 10:18 AM

I am folding this, I think MP1 has you beat and you're drawing to 2 outs most of the time. There is a nightmare scenario that he has something like QQJ10 and your trips won't even be enough. I don't think MP1 will make this play with a draw actually, he is strong.(but maybe I'm weak?)

You saved some money checking OOP, good for you [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]