Wisconson v. Ohio St. college BBall

[in48092]

I nver bet on sports (except taking Florida with the money line last night) so i don't know what i'm talking about. However i really like Wisconson -4.5 at home against Ohio St. Wisconson = juniors and seniors, at home, in conference against a bunch of Freshman. I'm watching this game with a Badger alum who i split the Florida bet with, so i think we're going to put the winnings on the line on this game. Also i'm thinking about buying 2.5 points to make it Wisc. -2 at 1.6-1 thoughts?

[FGators]

I would just take the line the way it is. Ohio State's 4th road game of the year and they are 1-2 coming in, with an impressive win against an unimpressive team (Illinois).

see my thread on this page for more thoughts but I LOVE the Badgers in this one.

[Lori]

[ QUOTE ]
I nver bet on sports (except taking Florida with the money line last night) so i don't know what i'm talking about. However i really like Wisconson -4.5 at home against Ohio St. Wisconson = juniors and seniors, at home, in conference against a bunch of Freshman. I'm watching this game with a Badger alum who i split the Florida bet with, so i think we're going to put the winnings on the line on this game. Also i'm thinking about buying 2.5 points to make it Wisc. -2 at 1.6-1 thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

Can't comment on the play, but in general buying points is a bad idea unless you have a good reason.

Lori

[in48092]

Lori, why?

[MCS]

Think of it like this: Why is the book allowing you to buy points? The natural answer is that is profitable for them. This means it is UNprofitable for the buyer.

[Thremp]

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Think of it like this: Why is the book allowing you to buy points? The natural answer is that is profitable for them. This means it is UNprofitable for the buyer.

[/ QUOTE ]

If this was always true you'd never place a bet.

[New001]

[ QUOTE ]
Think of it like this: Why is the book allowing you to buy points? The natural answer is that is profitable for them. This means it is UNprofitable for the buyer.

[/ QUOTE ]
What might be true for "the buyer" as a whole, meaning every customer at the book, is not true for each individual bettor. Otherwise, none of us would be winners. Then again, I never buy points.

[Thremp]

FWIW I've heard the best handicappers are able to find the most value in alternate lines. With line shopping the vig is typically much smaller on these as well.

[MCS]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Think of it like this: Why is the book allowing you to buy points? The natural answer is that is profitable for them. This means it is UNprofitable for the buyer.

[/ QUOTE ]

If this was always true you'd never place a bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, this is flawed, because Lori was talking about buying points without some significant reason. From a purely $EV perspective, most bets are bad ones, and this applies to the "regular" bets as well as buying points.

The book thinks they are making money with the bets they offer, and you generally need a good reason to disagree. I almost never buy points, partially because I assume that it is very easy for the book to price them.

[livin_a_lie]

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Also i'm thinking about buying 2.5 points to make it Wisc. -2 at 1.6-1 thoughts?


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Good thinkin

On a side note, Wisco is on my [censored] list. HIT A GD FREETHROW! [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]