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Old 01-08-2007, 02:52 PM
kahntrutahn kahntrutahn is offline
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Join Date: May 2005
Location: Inundated with Idiocy
Posts: 1,080
Default Math Problem w/Showdown Monkey

Opponent notes and background: I am by no means losing to the player I am about to describe, however, I feel that I can earn even more off of them if I make some more adjustments. The site we play at, in HU matches, SB = Button or BB = Button shifts depending on who gets high card to start, so I need to account for both types of blind activity. This player is completely and utterly unbluffable. WTSD 50% 1 on 1. They play is very mixed up, different lines taken each time. I credit them with the discipline to mix it up so well, better than anyone else I've ever encountered actually.

Long story short, lets keep in mind we are almost never folding an A/K hi or any PP, baby pair, etc. This person also has, as far as I can tell, a very optimal bluffing frequency... I'm forced to call down often because seemingly randomly they get out of line and bluff/bluff-raise/even bluff or semi3B. However, I find that I am usually being value-bet more than bluffed... but the bluffs are often enough that I too am showing down 46%+ in defense.

1) Assume someone raises 65% of their hands. What is, mathematically speaking, your optimal 3 betting range?

2) What shift would you make to this mathematical range if you were in position?

3) What shift would you make to this mathematical range if you were out of
position?
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