Mirage 20/40 - Is waiting to raise the river here a mistake?

[Iamthegreatest]

20/40 live at the Mirage a couple weeks ago…

UTG is a young Vegas local who plays decently (Nothing special though). Button is a complete donk (calls raises very loose). The SB is fairly new to the table. I think I’ve played with him before but I’m not sure. Anyway, he’s only been sitting for a little over an orbit and hasn’t really played a hand yet. He carries himself like he knows what he’s doing (most likely semi-pro player). The game is 7 handed.

UTG raises. Fold. I smooth call with TT (Most of the time I 3 bet here but I decided to make a variation play). Fold. Button cold calls. SB 3 bets. BB folds. UTG 4 bets. Call. Call. Call.

Flop comes down KT6. Check. UTG bets. I raise. Fold. SB check 3 bets. Call. Call.

Turn 6. SB checks. UTG checks. I bet. SB check raises. Fold. I call.

River J. SB bets. I raise. SB 3 bets. I puke…then fold.


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The reason I’m posting this is because my friend, who was also at the table, basically told me I was retarded for not raising the turn and that people on here would agree with him and laugh at me if I posted this hand. I think it would have been pretty feeble of me not to have put in one more raise somewhere here with the third nuts so I’m raising one more time somewhere. My buddy seemed to think that if you’re going to raise you have to raise on the turn. He thought I made a huge mistake by not raising but given the action and the type of player I was up against I think I played it fine. I waited till the river to raise because I thought this line would maximize the amount of money that I’d win if I was ahead. What do you guys think? (I'm really mostly interested in where to put in the last raise to shut my friend up :-P but if anyone sees something wrong with the river play or anywhere else I welcome comments there too, I suppose some arguments could be made for calling since the pot is enormous but anyway…)

[Brunger]

Preflop is a must 3-bet to deter callers with overcards. On the river I think he has AA AK often enough to call. Especially given a real lack of a read. As far a 3-betting the turn or capping the flop are both options but I don't mind the postflop line.

[benwood]

It's not a good idea at limit to underplay your hand & then make a big laydown on the river.

[blindside]

not 3betting preflop is definately a mistake.... i wouldn't be able to fold this though after hitting a set but at least you could be more sure of a fold if you did...

there's some hands in a cold-callers range that he thinks he could be gaining value from on the river with something like AA or A6 or even AQ.... 3bet the turn and call down if it's capped.... he might not be on the same wavelength as you....

[The DaveR]

[ QUOTE ]
It's not a good idea at limit to underplay your hand & then make a big laydown on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think Paluka said this first and it should be The Paluka Theorem.

[mongidig]

The way you played your hand it looks like you have a hand like KJ and your opponent may think his AA are good and 3 bet you. Who knows he may be getting aggressive with AK. I would call the river. I would have 3 bet the turn.

I think it was a mistake not to 3 bet preflop especially since this was just 7 handed.

Do you guys always reraise with TT even if the game is full in this situation? Are there situations where you would just smooth call? I would think that if the UTG was tight and the players behind me were loose simply calling would be best.

[Iamthegreatest]

The young kid seemed like he was starting to get frustrated and might have been raising weak, which I guess should maybe have made me lean more towards 3 betting but the table was playing tight enough at the time that I actually thought there was a very good chance it might be heads up anyway if I just smooth called. That’s the reason I only called, as I said normally I 3 bet. I tend to 3 bet almost 100% of the time (which may be too much vs competent UTG…I dunno) but anyway I was varying my play here. I would also have position on him the whole hand and I thought I could control him.

[Iamthegreatest]

It might have actually been 8 handed (I’ll have to ask my friend). Not that that would have changed too much…

[Iamthegreatest]

In my original version of this post I indicated the result of the hand since I was mainly concerned about the question of where to put in the last raise (turn or river). But then I excluded it because I was slightly curious whether anyone would think I made a mistake on the river. Maybe I didn’t explain my read on this guy well enough. Given my read on the player, most likely semi-pro, tight aggressive player I gave him a huge hand. Like I said I’m pretty sure I played with him before and he plays solid. He’s not 3 betting out of the SB with KT or any hand that contains a 6. So what hands can this guy 3 bet me with on the river? He’s not doing it with AA or AK. When he goes 3 bets on the river he has to have KK or else he’s being really really creative. And although I give this guy respect I don’t think most live 20/40 players are capable of bluffing here. I know it’s not good to make big laydowns in massive pots but here I was sure enough that I thought a laydown was correct. One other thing is after I raised the river the guy was crazy shaking all over the place when he 3 bet. I didn’t mention this originally since I didn’t want people to focus on this and think I was making a laydown based mostly on the fact that a guy was shaking rather than other factors. So the shaking along with everything else (read on player, play of hand...he 3 bet pre, he check 3 bet the flop and craised me on the turn and I still raised the river then he raises again) made me sure I couldn’t beat anything. The SB flashed me KK…

[Iamthegreatest]

Okay here’s my thought process for what it’s worth. It seems everyone is advocating that I should have been a lot more aggressive but this isn’t an online hand (I am an online player though). People in this game are actually able to fold. Especially the player I was up against:

SB went 3 bets preflop. Given my read on him (i.e. probably semi-pro) I give him a big hand, AA, KK or AK…maybe QQ (but not as likely). Flop comes down KT6, UTG bets, I have mid set in a 4 way 4 bet preflop pot, I raise now to induce as much action as I can from AA, AK or worse kings (pretty straightforward). SB check 3 bets. UTG calls. I call planning to raise the turn. Turn 6. Check. Check. Obviously the turn check is strange but I’m never checking behind here ever. I bet. Now the SB check raises again. UTG folds. I only call…

The reason I do this is because if I go three bets there’s no hand that I can beat that’s going to call me. If I reraise, all worse hands are folding and better hands are going 4 bets or if he’s really smart he’s smooth calling then check raising or even leading the river. This guy, given my read on him and his preflop 3 bet, does not have A6, K6, T6 or even 66 (hands which could call if I 3 bet). The only hands he can have that make sense given his actions are AA, KK or AK (he’s twice as likely to have AA over KK since there’s a king on board). Since he’ll only be getting 17.5 to 1 to call a 3 bet this means if he has AA or AK he’s folding (maybe some donkeys would be stupid enough to call but “this guy” is not calling with those hands if I reraise in this situation). So I decided to simply call the check raise and then wait to raise the river. This way I gain 1 extra bet minimum if he checks and calls, or maybe even 2 bets if he fires again on the river and then makes a crying call when I raise.

My friend’s argument was that on the turn you have to punish hands that are behind. But in this case I’m not really punishing any hand that’s behind because any hand that’s behind that this guy could have is folding if I raise. I think the only argument that can be made for going 3 bets on the turn is that, given the size of the pot, something can be said for just taking it down right then and there. When the pot gets big your main concern should be trying to take it down and not worrying about earning extra bets. However, against the two hands drawing live against me, AA and AK, both hands each only have 2 outs against me, so I don’t really care that much about letting him see one more card. If the guy was a complete maniac which would change his range or if he was an idiot who I knew was incapable of folding when beat then things might be different but this wasn’t the case.

Finally, someone at the table commented that given the action: SB3bet, flop check 3 bet, turn check raise that it should have been obvious that the guy had KK? I’m sorry but I think that’s ridiculous. In my experience I think a lot of people would play AA or even AK the exact same way (and again it’s twice as likely he has AA over KK since there’s a king on board). I might take this line with AA or maybe even AK depending on the lineup.