AA faces turn c/r, 3/6

#1 12-21-2006, 04:29 PM

hi,

i didn't get used to bluff and semi-bluff turn check-raises at low limits, so i'm trying to adjust since i caught a couple of 3/6 guys taking shots...

opponent here is 21.5/11.5 after 90 hands. his ag. factor is 1 so far. only thing i remember from him is stealing in button with Q6s.

i think he might limp a lot of medium suited connectors here... pp>77 unlikely

without more reads, do you call down that scary turn? call and fold a non-pairing river? fold?

PokerStars 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, 2 folds, Hero raises, 4 folds, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (5.33 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, UTG+2 calls.

Turn: (3.66 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, UTG+2 raises, Hero ?

Bob T. · #2 12-21-2006, 05:24 PM

Lets assume his checkraise is for value. He can be ahead of you three ways, Two pair, a set, or a 9 for a straight.

If he has two pair, you have 8 outs.

If he has a set, you have 2 outs to a win, and four to a chop.

If he has a 9 without a queen, you have 3 outs to a chop, and if he has Q9, you have zero outs.

It is also possible that he has a one pair hand, and is playing you for AK, or trying to get you to lay down your overpair.

Or he could be semibluffing two dimamonds, especially if he had a pair, and AQ, and KQ both give him open ended straight draws.

There are 6 Big bets in the pot, and effectively, you are getting 7 to 2 to call this down. If you are behind, the only way you get those odds, are if your opponent holds two pair.

So the question is, how likely is it that you are ahead now, and he is drawing to somewhere between 2 and 15 outs? I think you look at his aggression factor, where he is moderately passive, and decide that it is more likely that he is value betting here, and let go of this hand. It was prettty preflop, but when a mostly passive player raises you on the turn on a coordinated board, your hand isn't so attractive anymore.

If you chose to call it down, I wouldn't blame you, but I think that you will be shown a winner too often to make this call profitable.

Allday Everyday · #3 12-21-2006, 05:44 PM

I think the turn bet is good. But I think you should fold to the raise. I don't think you're ahead often enough to call down with that sized pot.

HiroNakamura · #4 12-21-2006, 07:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think the turn bet is good. But I think you should fold to the raise. I don't think you're ahead often enough to call down with that sized pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the turn should either go check behind/call river or bet/fold. The board is scary, your opponent is tricky enough that he might bluff check/raise the turn. I'd try to see a showdown as cheap as possible.

johnnyrocket · #5 12-28-2006, 03:53 AM

At this low of limits you dont see as many of these check-raise bluffs as you would at higher limits because you have many calling stations and more fishies. The chance that he is check-raise bluffing is usually to small for a call here to be profitable. As you move up in limits though this may change so watch out.

HoneyBadger · #6 12-28-2006, 09:54 AM

I've been "fixing" my game in this situation. A flop check/call, and then a turn check/raise almost always means your hand is no good.

Myself I would sometimes semibluff check-raise this turn with a straight and a flush draw, eg. KdQd. But only against TAGs who are capable of folding to a c/r. Most players aren't. So does he see you as capable of folding here? Because if he doesn't, he's not bluffing, it's for value, so fold.

Btw, if the board is scary, you are last to act and you will fold to a raise, I think it's better to check behind and call the river. At least you get a showdown for one bet then. Also, your opponent also sees a scary board, so if he has nothing he might very well fold on the turn, but he might bluff the river.

HoneyBadger · #7 12-28-2006, 10:07 AM

Found two hands where I c/r the turn as a "semibluff". Maybe it's helpful, dunno, otherwise just ignore them [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

3/6 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, 2 folds, CO calls, 2 folds, BB checks.

Flop: (4.33 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, CO raises, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.16 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero raises, CO folds.

Final Pot: 7.16 BB

---

3/6 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP2 raises, 4 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (4.33 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP2 raises, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.16 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets, Hero raises, MP2 calls.

River: (8.16 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP2 calls.

Final Pot: 10.16 BB

Results in white below: 
Hero has Tc Ad (two pair, aces and fours).
MP2 has 7s 5s (two pair, sevens and fives).
Outcome: Hero wins 10.16 BB. 

(it looks a little spewy, but I was winning and pushing over the table, so I had good fold equity... and outs)