NL100, 99 at paired board

Hi guys!

How did I play this hand? What do you put villain on?

NL100, 5handed
Hero has $93, villain covers.

Villain openlimps in the CO, <font color="red">Hero raises to $5 OTB</font> with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], SB calls, villain calls.

Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($16)
SB checks, Villain checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $11.00</font>, SB folds, <font color="red">Villain raises to $22</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($60)
<font color="red">Villain bets $29</font>, Hero calls.

River: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($118)
<font color="red">Villain puts Hero all in for $37</font>, Hero folds.

What can you say about how I played this hand?

Thanks!

[joe234321]

As played I would fold turn. It is hard to put him on a hand if you have no read on him. He could've been bluffing on the flop but then picked up a pair of jacks on the turn. It is also likely that he hit that 8. Either way the turn lead is strong. He is trying to get it all in. Get out.

[ QUOTE ]
As played I would fold turn. It is hard to put him on a hand if you have no read on him. He could've been bluffing on the flop but then picked up a pair of jacks on the turn. It is also likely that he hit that 8. Either way the turn lead is strong. He is trying to get it all in. Get out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, is it really that strong when he minraises the flop and follows up on the turn with only 1/2 pot bet? And an 8 is unlikely while a flushdraw is prettly likely don't you think?

Also, in this particular hand I had stats on villain saying he was tight and not that wild. I forgot to add that in the OP.

[BigBiceps]

This actually is a tough hand.

I would have to make a decision on the flop whether I was winning or not based on my opponent's previous play.

If I thought I was winning I would push allin, otherwise I would fold.

[kidcolin]

Tough spot. Villian is tight, so folding flop can't be that bad. He's either got an 8, an overpair, or overs+FD.

If you're calling the flop, on the turn you need to decide to push or fold. Calling is bad. You're leaving yourself with 1/3rd pot left.

[joe234321]

I said it was a strong line b/c he is betting enough so it is hard to fold but enough to end up getting your entire stack in by the river. When someone is bluffing with a FD they usually make big bets that can scare people away. Also, you aren't even a big favorite over 2 overs and a FD.

[ QUOTE ]
This actually is a tough hand.

I would have to make a decision on the flop whether I was winning or not based on my opponent's previous play.

If I thought I was winning I would push allin, otherwise I would fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't you think it's a good idea to wait for the turn and see if he wants to play for stacks? A big turnbet would weigh his range towards trips and I can get out, and a smaller bet size would weigh towards a flushdraw, bluff or maybe a smaller pair (although unlikely).

And if the turn is a club I can make a cheap exit.

[ QUOTE ]
I said it was a strong line b/c he is betting enough so it is hard to fold but enough to end up getting your entire stack in by the river. When someone is bluffing with a FD they usually make big bets that can scare people away. Also, you aren't even a big favorite over 2 overs and a FD.

[/ QUOTE ]

Whether or not a FD bets big I think depends a lot on the board. Here he can't really expect an overpair to fold all that much if he semibluffs his FD again on the turn even if its a big bet, don't u think?

[BigBiceps]

The reason I don't like to wait for the turn is the overpair is not big enough.

There are hardly any "safe cards" in the deck, you don't know what overcards he might have.

[ QUOTE ]
Tough spot. Villian is tight, so folding flop can't be that bad. He's either got an 8, an overpair, or overs+FD.

If you're calling the flop, on the turn you need to decide to push or fold. Calling is bad. You're leaving yourself with 1/3rd pot left.

[/ QUOTE ]

kidcolin, first of all I think an overpair is very unlikely.
But what you say about leaving few chips behind on the turn is interesting. I have to agree with you. But I think a turn push would be the play.

There are only a few combinations of 87s, 98s, A8s (if he really would openlimp that) and other suited 8's, but there are a lot of suited clubs that could have played this way though.