200NL 6M: Tough turn decision with big draw.

[DevinLake]

Thoughts on my line, all streets?

Villain is 28/13/2.5.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($159.15)
MP ($362.15)
Hero ($269.05)
Button ($273.35)
SB ($119.95)
BB ($160.30)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $6</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $6, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls $5, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: ($20) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $15</font>, SB calls $15, UTG folds.

Turn: ($50) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $25</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $98.95</font>, Hero ????

[napkins]

I'd either check behind or bet 40, probably bet.

[Jshuttlesworth]

I think I check behind because getting raised sucks, although it is tempting to try to use the K as a scare card.

[MatthewRyan]

I call

[Tonding]

You're priced in.
Call.

[Jay Riall]

Make your second barrel a proper sized bet - $37 looks good. I think you have to call, your priced in. On a side note - how long have you been playing cash for? Still playing SNGs?

[pr0crast]

Easy call getting 2.33:1 on a 1.35:1 situation. (correct me if i'm wrong)

If you bet more on the turn, not only do you have more FE but it makes a call to his push even more correct.

[JonnyCosMo]

Just commit yourself on the turn so you dont have to ask this question~

[FishRoller]

You're getting a little over 2:1 odds. Lets say you need a 5, 10, 9, 8 or club (b/c looks like he has Ak or overpair) Hitting that draw on the river,,getting 2:1, ur about even money against AK, KQ, QQ, or AA even on the river. Instacall.. i think villian has AK or AA, because raised UTG, almost always here. I like turn bet if u expected him to shove b/c of ur CRAPload of outs! I often check behind if i had one less card i could hit than u.

[danswer5]

i think this is a lot closer than you guys are saying. it looks to me like this is either a set 50% of the time, a straight 25% a weirdly played 2pair 10% a horriby played AK value shove for 10% and a bluff like 5%. i doubt that this is ever a semi-bluff at these levels. obv hand frequiences can be differnet, that's your call. based on these assumptions, youve got 13 outs against a set, ~10 against a straight, depending on his straight, ~16 against a 2pair type hand, and i think 20 against AK. obviously depending on what straight he has and which 2 pair, these numbers can be different.

By calculating our equity against this range, we've got:
13 outs 50%, 10 outs 25%, 16 outs 10%, 20 outs 10%, 40 or os 5%. Overall if this is a reasonable range than we've got 31.7% equity.

The pot is laying us 175:75 so about 2.33-1. It looks like we are getting just about the right odds to call. if you had a really good read taht this palyer was nitty, however, I think this could be a fold. Id still probalby call,though, in the heat of the moment.

This is jsut a crude calculation that I made up. Any problems with the math? I'm here to learn, and i know that this could be wrong. Thanks.