10/20 bottom set in unraised pot

[fslexcduck]

so villain in this hand plays TAG for the most part. he doesnt show down too many bluffs but he is definitely capable of making a move. his value bets are generally on the bigger side.

effective stack is 2300.

3 to the flop, i limp 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in MP.

flop (60): 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

check to me, i bet 60, sb folds, bb calls.

turn (180): 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

bb leads 80, i make it 260, bb makes it 800, i call.

river (1780): Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

bb leads 1100.

call? what do we put bb on? should i have played this any differently?

[JMa]

I think villain has straight/666 here 90% of the time

[CavMan]

I would push, assuming you don't have much left anyway. My guess is that he has two pair. The only hand I see you being behind is 4s7s.

[EnderW27]

[ QUOTE ]
I think villain has straight/666 here 90% of the time

[/ QUOTE ]

The only straight I can see is something like 2-4 or 4-7 suited and even then it's debatable.
Any other straight makes no sense. Villian's calling a pot sized bet out of position with 3, maybe 4, outs?

A set of sixes sounds logical the way it's been played but K-6 and K-5 make sense too.
After all, from villian's perspective you might only have something like Kx here and he's way ahead.

So my money would be on the two pair the most likely, set of sixes second, set of fives third, a straight way last unless it's specifically coupled with the flush draw (an unlikely combination).

Overall, this seems like a call. I don't know if I have the balls to push the river though.

[El Diablo]

Ender,

"The only straight I can see is something like 2-4 or 4-7 suited and even then it's debatable. Any other straight makes no sense. Villian's calling a pot sized bet out of position with 3, maybe 4, outs?"

This sort of "analysis" makes me sick.

[El Diablo]

fs,

He bets 1100 into 1800 pot on river leaving himself 300? That's weird. Anyway, this is a guy who sometimes makes big moves and was in the BB. You have a set. Just stick the extra 300 in there and see who has the best hand. Sure he could have you beat, but no reason for him not to have something like two pair or A5s.

[D104]

People just dont check-call on the flop and then bet/3-bet the turn with 2 pair out of the blinds. He either has a bigger set or perhaps 47 (4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]). Against a str8, counting implied odds, you have odds to see the river - but the times he has 55 or 66 and you are drawing near-dead make counter-act this. Tough move, but I think the right thing to do is fold to his 3-bet on the turn. Def. fold the river.

D

[EnderW27]

I could expand upon my analysis but I guess I'd need to know what about it makes you sick.

But I'll preemptively expand on what I think you're getting at:
Overall, villian has huge implied odds to hit his 3-4 outer (four if villian thinks it unlikely hero's on a flush draw). With stacks of 2300, calling 60 isn't that big a deal.

But in order to call for the implied odds, villian has to be sure he'll get paid off when he hits. This is a pretty raggy board. How does Villian not know Hero's not just taking a stab at it in position and will dump it quickly to any resistence? Villain bucks the odds, hits his miracle card, bets out, and hero folds it?

After a preflop call and a single bet, what does villain put hero on that will pay off that straight with enough money to make the flop call correct?

[El Diablo]

Ender,

"what does villain put hero on that will pay off that straight with enough money to make the flop call correct?"

#1: Who cares if the flop call is "correct" ?
#2: Is villain allowed to bluff?

[Siri]

He was BB why couldnt he have a straight?