$100NL Triple barrelled whiffed nfd

[matrix]

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $437.10
CO: $92.50
Matrix: $95.35
SB: $93
BB: $113.50

Pre-flop: (5 players) Matrix is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG calls, CO folds, <font color="#cc0000">Matrix raises to $5</font>, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls.

Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($16, 3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">Matrix bets $10</font>, SB folds, UTG calls.

Turn: 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($36, 2 players)
UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">Matrix bets $25</font>, UTG calls.

River: 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($86, 2 players)
UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">Matrix is all-in $55.35</font>

Villain is unknown but seems pretty tight so far.
Hero is 20/20/6

Spew? or am I repping AA/KK nicely here?

what kind of read do I need to make this play??

[bobman0330]

I would basically never make this move. I would certainly never run it against a bad player. Against a good, disciplined player, you might consider trying it if you have a very ABC image.

[gharp]

I'm not crazy about this -- if he had put you on AA/KK, wouldn't he have folded on the turn? I'd check behind and hope to see JT or lesser [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]s.

Also, in general, I'd like a more solid read before I push a bluff this hard.

[orange]

against an unknown, no.

I think once he calls that turn, he will typically call most rivers. If your looking for extraction, I would usually bet the turn harder so it would enable a river shove to be a bit smaller compared to pot size.

[Hince]

I pulled this move yesterday and it worked out for me, but I think it is a bad play. After the turn bet, you don't leave yourself enough to bluff him off anything that would call the turn except a missed flush.

[Jigsaws]

I don't hate triple barreling sometimes, but both turn and river were mostly blanks (except for 68). I'd just check the turn, FWIW. OOP I'm more likely to double barrel/block the turn with a flush draw.

[True]

basically, if he folded, you probably had the best hand anyway.

True

[PBJaxx]

[ QUOTE ]
basically, if he folded, you probably had the best hand anyway.

True

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the key to this hand. If villain was purely on a draw too, you win this at showdown anyway with Ace-high. You might get a fold from TT or JJ, but other than that what are you hoping to fold? I really don't think a queen folds here. If the river were a king or an ace (if you didn't have it), I would consider this play if I had a read. I think you need a scare card to make this play profitable. In this spot, I think the only hands that fold here, you already have beat.

-Jaxx

[matrix]

recently I have been checking behind here only to lose to hands like K2d K7d or some other hand that pairs the river but isn't calling a push, so I pushed here as I don't want that to happen.

Villain folds and then claims in chat that he can't fold open ednders - which puts him squarely on JT.

I think most often I'm ahead anyway if he folds but how often does villain have something like K2d and my river bet wins an otherwise lost pot vs the times he has a Q and obv isn't folding.

[allaboutmyfetti]

I can't think of what hands call 2 streets but fold the river ... except for maybe a worse flush draw