Boring TD last draw question.

[dibbs]

Not too common, but saw a player I respect a lot in the 300-600 game make this final draw play and I don't know if I'd play it the same, I havent found a game to play in for months though and incredibly off.

I can't find the hand history at the moment so I'll skip to the part that I found interesting...

It's the final draw and solid player has 2345Q, BB draws 2, do you stick with the Q here? A bet has gone in on every street so far.

Kinda boring but I think I would have pitched the Q just because I was far ahead, does the answer change if you had 2367Q instead of a straight draw?

[RegBarclay]

I just ran this through twodimes and gave the other player 732

Standing pat wins 66%, if you ditch the queen you only win 54%

Regards,
RegBarclay

[dibbs]

Thank ya sir [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[fnord_too]

I keep the Q here every time. I have not done the math, but it may be correct to keep the Q even if he draws 1 (you will loose to a 1 card draw > 50% keeping the Q, but possibly more tossing the Q. I really should do that math sometime, but I haven't playe TD in months so it is hard to push that up the to do priority list).

[MarkGritter]

Twodimes is suspect on 2345 draws because it does not treat A2345 as ace-high. This can be a 2-3% swing.

I would never keep the Q if my opponent drew one and there is money left. If he has a draw as poor as 9763x (where, note, you have killed 4 of his outs) you are a bare 51/49 favorite. Twodimes puts you as a 51/49 dog by drawing. That 2% equity is probably not worth having to make a tough river decision (unless you autofold? in which case your equity takes a beating anyway.)

In fact, I think the twodimes number is incorrect by enough to make your EV slightly higher by drawing. My spreadsheet calculation puts you at 0.517 by drawing while twodimes reports you at 0.512 by standing pat.

If Villian draws two I would definitely keep it. If Villian has a stronger 1-card draw you're behind either way, but I think last-round considerations require a draw even if the chance of the Q holding up is a bit larger.

[fnord_too]

Mark,

Let's take a basic strategy of calling any river bet with Q high or better whether we stay pat or not. (I'm at work, so I want to keep this as simple as possible).

For simplicities sake, let's look at the worst case scenario where he is drawing to 2347. Thats 20ish bad cards he can catch if we stand. (2 each of 234, 3 each of 7Q, 4 each of AK) out of a stub of 40ish (rounding for simplicities sake). So basicly he is 50/50 to beat us. If he bets perfectly, this costs us 0.5BB.

If we both draw, there are 4 sixes which are losers, 4 aces and kings, 2 3's and 4's and 3 5's we will fold to a bet. So we are calling 55% of the time there is a bet. He will be ahead of us on the hands we will call with about 30% of the time, but the whole thing gets complicated since we will win a few free ones we would fold to a bet, we will fold incorrectly when he bluffs his bad hands but snap those bluffs off 55% of the time, depending on what he value bets/calls with on our value bets/bluffs this gets complicated. Also, I don't think we can have such tight calling standards since villain will be so easily correct to bluff with all his misses.

This seems to come down to, if we break, other than 6's which are an easy fold, how often we end up ahead of villain if we both draw, and if that number is greater than if we stand pat. We also have to consider the 10% of the time we hit our straight, which is just lost expectation. I guess one way to look at it is that we improve with 7,8,9,T,J or a little less than half the time, are the same with Q's, and get worst with 2,3,4,5,6,K,A or a little more than 1/2 the time. This looks really close depending on how villain will play the river in each case, but I don't think standing is right or wrong by a whole lot in the case of a one card draw. With 2347Q, the extra 4 outs seem to be significant.

[Beavis68]

20 cards make your hand worse, and 12 of them are deadly, 3 more tie.