$50 HUSNG -- Top pair Call Station

Nichomacheo · #1 10-03-2006, 12:57 AM

Opponent (not the same as the other thread) is fairly loose, but no clear reads at the moment.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (2 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Hero (t1940)
Button (t1060)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Button calls t10, Hero raises to t80, Button calls t60.

Flop: (t160) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets t80, Button calls t80.

Turn: (t320) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

River: (t320) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets t140, Button raises to t280

Hero calls t140

Bad river call? What do you put him on?

Nichomacheo

Winenose · #2 10-03-2006, 04:41 AM

I think he would have raised you at some point before river if he can beat AA99Q board. Call and it's a split pot 80% of the time. 5% you're beat, 15% you win. You did the preflop aggro, flop c-bet, turn nothing, river "last try to win the pot"..

So I'd put him on Ax where x is not 9.

XxPenguinxX · #3 10-03-2006, 05:09 AM

No, a good call, and well done for not raising. You have to pay him off, if for no other reason than the fact that he could read your bet as a steal.

Nichomacheo · #4 10-03-2006, 11:33 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think he would have raised you at some point before river if he can beat AA99Q board.

[/ QUOTE ]

That is not the board.

[ QUOTE ]
You have to pay him off, if for no other reason than the fact that he could read your bet as a steal.

[/ QUOTE ]

Most people wont min-raise to steal. There is also the point that I raised preflop, so its easy for me to have an ace here. Min-raising would be a terrible bluff in this spot. I think he calls with Ax, raises more for AQ, raises more for a bluff. That leaves, in my opinion, a nine.

How's the analysis?

XxPenguinxX · #5 10-03-2006, 12:13 PM

Well, since the minraise screams "NINE" I think it's very worthwhile as a bluff too. I agree he may well be holding a 9, but I still think you have to pay it off.

Nichomacheo · #6 10-03-2006, 12:33 PM

You're assuming he's thinking on the third level arent you?

Winenose · #7 10-03-2006, 02:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think he would have raised you at some point before river if he can beat AA99Q board.

[/ QUOTE ]

That is not the board.

[/ QUOTE ]

I should've said 'hand'..
but I meant is that you are SO obviously representing an ace here that it might as well be on the board.

So he might be trying to pick that off, like saying "I don't believe you have the very obvious ace there. I'm instead telling you I have it and I give you a way out"

Nichomacheo · #8 10-03-2006, 04:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
So he might be trying to pick that off, like saying "I don't believe you have the very obvious ace there. I'm instead telling you I have it and I give you a way out"

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats a very, very dangerous way to play if you're min-raising.

jay_shark · #9 10-04-2006, 12:56 AM

I would prefer to check the river . If he has a queen , he may be trying to represent the 9 by betting out a substantial amount .

The river bet has almost no positive EV value . Any ace hand would result in a chopped pot if the kicker is less than the queen . If this player does have a queen , then you may argue that you lose value by not betting but I actually think the paired 9 induces a bluffing opportunity for this player . The 9 is a potential scare card for you and this player knows it .

MEJG2 · #10 10-04-2006, 10:23 AM

Without any other read on the player, I call here but expect to see a 9 a lot of the time. I too don't like the river bet. I prefer a check call here. I don't put him on a Q, I think he has a 9 or an A.

With some other history, I may find a fold here. Specifically, is he a value bettor with his big hands vs. an over bettor, I probably fold. If he is a thinking player, and I believe he sees me the same way, I call as this is also a nice bluff spot. I check call the river since you are OOP and he checked the turn.