I hate calling to fold the river.....

Schizo · #1 01-27-2006, 12:56 PM

Villain is 37/25/1.7 over 168

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is Button with 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
3 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB calls.

Flop: (4.40 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.20 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero calls.

River: (6.20 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 7.20 BB

This play seems odd to me but I was told it's correct.

Grisgra · #2 01-27-2006, 01:04 PM

If you're going to call the turn, call the river. No reason to put him on an ace, and if you put him on 7 or an 8, as opposed to a draw, then you really don't have odds to call the turn with your ISD.

Whether to call the turn, I dunno.

gaming_mouse · #3 01-27-2006, 01:05 PM

I like this. Depending on the player, though, I think that a turn raise might be better.

gaming_mouse · #4 01-27-2006, 01:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If you're going to call the turn, call the river. No reason to put him on an ace, and if you put him on 7 or an 8, as opposed to a draw, then you really don't have odds to call the turn with your ISD.

Whether to call the turn, I dunno.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey Grisgra,

When the ace comes, really the only hands that hero is still ahead of are draws that villain is still bluffing with. I guess you are saying that you think the chance of villain having such a draw is enough to justify a river call, is that right? Given his stats, on second thought, you may be right... but it seems close.

Grisgra · #5 01-27-2006, 01:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you're going to call the turn, call the river. No reason to put him on an ace, and if you put him on 7 or an 8, as opposed to a draw, then you really don't have odds to call the turn with your ISD.

Whether to call the turn, I dunno.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey Grisgra,

When the ace comes, really the only hands that hero is still ahead of are draws that villain is still bluffing with. I guess you are saying that you think the chance of villain having such a draw is enough to justify a river call, is that right? Given his stats, on second thought, you may be right... but it seems close.

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It's just that there was no preflop raise from the BB, and there's no obvious reason why he'd checkraise the flop with an ace, unless it was exactly A4. I don't put the BB on an ace here, so the fact that the ace fell means little to me -- if anything it makes me think he's bluffing a bit more, as a 8 or 7 might check to the preflop raiser here thinking he might now be behind -- but a broken flush draw will think it's a scare card and keep hammering.

krishan · #6 01-27-2006, 01:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If you're going to call the turn, call the river. No reason to put him on an ace, and if you put him on 7 or an 8, as opposed to a draw, then you really don't have odds to call the turn with your ISD.

[/ QUOTE ]

WTF? Calling the turn does not mean you have to call the river. It's true that he probably doesn't have an ace but him betting into an ace on the river makes it much more likely that he has a hand.

Krishan

gaming_mouse · #7 01-27-2006, 01:27 PM

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It's true that he probably doesn't have an ace but him betting into an ace on the river makes it much more likely that he has a hand.

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I agree that the A makes him much more likely to give up on his missed draw bluff, IF he's a smart player. But given this guys stats I'm not so sure he's smart.

Grisgra · #8 01-27-2006, 01:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you're going to call the turn, call the river. No reason to put him on an ace, and if you put him on 7 or an 8, as opposed to a draw, then you really don't have odds to call the turn with your ISD.

[/ QUOTE ]

WTF? Calling the turn does not mean you have to call the river. It's true that he probably doesn't have an ace but him betting into an ace on the river makes it much more likely that he has a hand.

Krishan

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If we call on the turn then we think there's a reasonable percentage chance he's on a draw, given we only have 6 outs, and some of them might lead to a chop. Thus, getting 7:1 on the river, and having no reason to think villain has an ace, I think that a call is in order; it's at worst neutral EV IMO, and we get info on his hand.

I'm not saying whether folding the turn is correct vs calling the turn, calling the river, but calling the turn, folding the river seems a bit off to me given we don't call the turn unless we think he might be bluffing.

I would agree that if we have a specific read that this player will bluff the flop and turn but give up specifically on the river (even though a scare card hit), then calling the turn, folding the river is okay. We don't have that read, and I'm not willing to just assume it.

Grisgra · #9 01-27-2006, 01:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Hey Grisgra,

When the ace comes, really the only hands that hero is still ahead of are draws that villain is still bluffing with. I guess you are saying that you think the chance of villain having such a draw is enough to justify a river call, is that right? Given his stats, on second thought, you may be right... but it seems close.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's exactly right. It's a flop that has a lot of draws, and I don't think we have odds to call on the turn if we think he's got a 7 or 8 -- even if we're ahead, too, one of those draws could come in. If I see the turn, I call the river getting 7:1, esp. given how agg this guy is. It might be wrong, I dunno. But I think if you say "fold the river" you have a tough time defending the turn call. The percentages that he's bluffing + that he'll bluff exactly flop and turn but give up on the river have to be exactly right for this line to be correct I think. Plus, you get no info.

krishan · #10 01-27-2006, 01:46 PM

Yeah, you are correct about the river being a call. I just thought you were saying it's always incorrect to call a bet on the turn in spots like this and then fold the river. But you are talking contextually and I agree you are right.

Krishan