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#1
09-23-2006, 04:37 PM
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Possibly Interesting
20-40 six handed. I have K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in the SB. Tight player (bordering on a bit weak postflop, misses some bets, predictable, etc) opens in cutoff, fold to me and I raise it again. BB drops, now tight player caps. I call.
Flop comes A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. I check, cutoff bets and I call. The turn comes the 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. I check, cutoff checks. The river is the 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. I... Thoughts on all streets appreciated. Jeff 
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#2
09-23-2006, 04:42 PM
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Re: Possibly Interesting
I would fold the flop but whatever. As far as the river play, I would check/fold. When a tight player checks that turn after the preflop+flop action, it is becuz he is showing down, not giving up.
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#3
09-23-2006, 04:44 PM
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Re: Possibly Interesting
By "tight player" I'm assuming we have the best hand never here, right?
He's checking the turn because he wants to get to SD with his underpair. You might be able to steal this pot from him with a c/r, but I don't think it works near often enough. I would fold the flop in a heartbeat.
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#4
09-23-2006, 05:59 PM
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Re: Possibly Interesting
[ QUOTE ]
it is becuz he is showing down, not giving up. [/ QUOTE ] Really? Because maybe why OP thought this hand might be interesting is because A) the "bluff call" on the flop w. KQ when he sometimes has 6 outs and will get a free river often against this type of opponent, and B) a possible river bluff (lead) aren't so bad as they originally appear? Mainly focusing on B), any reasonably decent player recognizes that this action by the TAG is a defensive showdown move with a pocket pair. So, theoretically, if everyone knows that this opponent is calling a river bet 100% of the time, players are only value betting aces or high pocket pairs. And this pattern in my experience has seemed to hold true almost invariably. When I'm the preflop capper in this situation, I'm almost always beat when I call, and when I'm ahead my opponent almost always checks. So - shouldn't hands like 99-22 start folding rivers like this? I have done it against opponents I consider "predictable" or "straightforward." I guess it just depends on the stupidity factor - is the opponent "stupid" enough to make a completely "hopeless" river bluff? Of course, this line of thinking by tight TAGs coupled with the fact that you need to be successful 20% of the time to show a profit makes this hopeless river bluff - and the flop call to get the river - look a lot more reasonable than at first glance.
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#5
09-23-2006, 07:10 PM
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Re: Possibly Interesting
[ QUOTE ]
So, theoretically, if everyone knows that this opponent is calling a river bet 100% of the time, players are only value betting aces or high pocket pairs. And this pattern in my experience has seemed to hold true almost invariably. When I'm the preflop capper in this situation, I'm almost always beat when I call, and when I'm ahead my opponent almost always checks. So - shouldn't hands like 99-22 start folding rivers like this? I have done it against opponents I consider "predictable" or "straightforward." I guess it just depends on the stupidity factor - is the opponent "stupid" enough to make a completely "hopeless" river bluff? Of course, this line of thinking by tight TAGs coupled with the fact that you need to be successful 20% of the time to show a profit makes this hopeless river bluff - and the flop call to get the river - look a lot more reasonable than at first glance. [/ QUOTE ] Magi, I think you are giving this tight/predictable player a bit too much credit for levels of thinking. He's not checking behind 99 and then facing a river bet, then thinking "i checked to save myself a bet, and he knows i checked to save myself a bet, so if he bets he's betting for value so i should fold." He's just thinking "yay i saved myself a bet, i hope he's bluffing missed spades or a lower underpair." Also, I don't think a tight/predictable player caps below TT or 99 with any regularity, though you may have just been making that point for the sake of argument, which is probably accurate that against good players we should be folding some of the time since they expect us to call. As played i'd fold the folp, and check the river, since I don't think villain's folding to our river bet very often, pretty much just the same % of times as he got way out of line with his PF cap. Surf
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#7
09-23-2006, 07:19 PM
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Re: Possibly Interesting
[ QUOTE ]
Easy check/fold. This guy either checked behind a monster on the turn or pussed out with the Ace and is now trying to sd his underpair cheaply. A river c/r is viable here with the right villain though (which only you can know the guesstimates of it succeeding vs specific opponents). [/ QUOTE ]
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