Far too weak passive?

Abramovic · #1 09-01-2006, 04:54 PM

Should I have capped the flop and river?

Poker Room skin
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $0.25/$0.5
10 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is UTG+2 with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
2 folds, Hero calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button raises, SB calls, BB calls, Hero calls, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (12SB, 6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, MP2 folds, CO calls, Button raises, 2 folds, Hero calls, CO calls.

Turn: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (9BB, 3 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Button folds, Hero raises, CO calls.

River: 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (13BB, 2 players)
Hero bets, CO raises, Hero calls.

Results:
Final pot: 17BB

Buzz-cp · #2 09-01-2006, 04:55 PM

don't cap flop, yes 3-bet river. Turn is muy excellente.

Smoke em' · #3 09-01-2006, 05:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Should I have capped the flop and river?

Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (12SB, 6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, MP2 folds, CO calls, Button raises, 2 folds, Hero calls, CO calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, you played this correctly.

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Turn: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (9BB, 3 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Button folds, Hero raises, CO calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this c/r is probably -EV, but somebody else should probably confirm that if true.

[ QUOTE ]

River: 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (13BB, 2 players)
Hero bets, CO raises, Hero calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

What are you afraid of on this river? Unless you have a read that CO is so passive he would never raise without the nuts there is a really good chance that you're ahead. Worse hands will still call or raise your 3-bet, so 3-bet it and hope to see it capped.

Bona · #4 09-01-2006, 05:10 PM

* Grunch*

If he has the nut flush he 3 bets the turn right? So the 3 probably made his straight. I think you have to 3 bet the river and call a cap.

Ampelmann · #5 09-01-2006, 05:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Turn: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (9BB, 3 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Button folds, Hero raises, CO calls.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think this c/r is probably -EV, but somebody else should probably confirm that if true.

[/ QUOTE ]
Hero has the 2nd nuts. How can anything be -EV here?

shadeball · #6 09-01-2006, 05:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Turn: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (9BB, 3 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Button folds, Hero raises, CO calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this c/r is probably -EV, but somebody else should probably confirm that if true.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you think this is -ev?

Sushiglutton · #7 09-01-2006, 05:22 PM

Flop is fine 3-handed OOP. Cap river.

RemyXO · #8 09-01-2006, 05:27 PM

** GRUNCH **

Preflop: QTs is a little too weak a hand for me to open at UTG+2, unless the table pretty loose passive. Did you cringe when the button raised?

Flop: Pretty darn goo flop, did you deal it yourself? Now, you are on a close to nut flush draw. You are 2:1 against hitting it on the river. You have 35% chance to win it. Therefore - if it's more than two opponents in the hand, you shold choose the strategy to maximize the amount of money that goes into the pot. I love your bet there. When the button raises and comes back to you, there are EXACTLY two oppenents left. Your reraise will most definitely knock out the cutoff, and you are left with 50% pot equity and 35% odds. Not what you want ... definitely call, not a raise. Note that if a couple of more people called the button's raise, it would have been correct to reraise.

TURN: C/R is good, since betting out will knock out both opponents more often than not.

RIVER: Cap the sucker, no question about that. There are only two hands you are losing to - straight flush and king-high flush. Stop seeing monsters and cap. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Smoke em' · #9 09-01-2006, 05:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I think this c/r is probably -EV, but somebody else should probably confirm that if true.

[/ QUOTE ]
Hero has the 2nd nuts. How can anything be -EV here?

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Errrr... That's what I said but not what I meant.

I think the c/r is worse than betting although obviously not -EV. There's too good of a chance of it being checked through behind him. If the button was looking for a free card, OP just granted his wish. If button is playing aggressively, OP might get a raise out of him and be able to 3-bet.

So although the c/r worked out fine, I think the better play is to bet out on the turn and 3-bet button's raise.

Gap23Razor · #10 09-01-2006, 06:10 PM

river--cap yes, you have 2nd nut flush and it seems likely the villian has a straight...

flop--cap no, you have about 10 outs to win i think...9 for the flush, but i would shave off an out for the 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]--so make that 8 outs for the flush, also Q or T you can give yourself an out or two--so you have anywhere from 10-12 outs i would estimate---i am sure some people will disagree...i typically do not give a 3 full outs to over cards as someone may hold two pair or trips--maybe too conservative.

But with 47 cards yet to show, you would need about 16 outs to justify raising---you are getting 2 to 1 on just that bet only assuming CO would call, and i think he would as he called once already and the pot is grown big...