An Unfortunate Asymmetry

[David Sklansky]

The folowing syndrome occurs in all no limit tournaments but most especially on the first day of the 10K WSOP:

Most players, even the not so good ones, play quite carefully when the blinds are small compared to the stacks. In other words it would take a pretty bad "cold deck" to get them to commit anywhere near all their chips. When you draw a table filled with opponents like these, you have very little chance of ending the day broke, or even with less than the 10,000 you started with. On the other hand, if your table is not one of those that is going to be broken up that day, your chances of accumulating something signicant is much smaller than a player who is either at a wilder table or is destined to be moved one or more times.

If you are moved to another table, the average stack size of your opponents is automatically more than 10,000. Perhaps a lot more. Furthermore, the fact that players have been eliminated tends to mean that the whole table is gambling more. Even it they weren't, tight players with 15,000 in front of them are more profitable to be facing, if you are an expert, than ones with less. If the table is in fact volatile, it feeds on itself as more players go broke and those experts lucky enough to be brought to it (or lucky enough to start with a volatile table that doesn't break up) have a big edge.

Meanwhile those top players who draw more timid players on tables not broken up, have to content themselves with growing their chips to between twenty and thirty thousand that first day, with the only consolation being that they were almost certain to survive and that the real action doesn't start until the second day anyway.

[Eder]

Is this an excuse? jk... gl on Day 2.

[Chump Change]

'Theory of poker' changed my life, Dave. Thanx.

Edit: If this means you only have 20-30,000 chips that's still an average stack and you're in great shape. I'm sure you know this though. It is frustrating to not be sitting much more comfortably simply based on the luck of the draw. Best of luck on day 2.

[i am run]

[ QUOTE ]
'Theory of poker' changed my life, Dave. Thanx.

[/ QUOTE ]

same with 'smal stakes hold'em'... now i know how to play limit poker.

[MrBrightside]

an interesting point. I've seen a somewhat related phenomenon in the daily Star's $10 rebuy tourneys. If you are at a relatively tight table, where everyone doesn't automatically rebuy to double at the beginning and go a little crazy to ensure there's a lot of chips at their table to be won,your chances of going to the final table aren't very good. You will enter the second hour, end of rebuy period with a below average stack.

While you can come back from this and go deep, it is much harder and you have to get lucky a few times, as you are now entering what amounts to a deep-stacked tourney with a below avg. stack, plus when someone finally busts from this unfortunate table, they will probably be replaced with a big stack.

[Foucault]

This is a very good point, David. There are so many levels of luck in tournament poker that go beyond bad beats and how many times you get dealt pocket aces.

But as with many forms of luck, it is not 100% beyond your control. There are things you can do, especially later in the day, to loosen your table up and get them in a gambly mood. Some of this is just poker strategy (you can raise a lot, show bluff re-raises, etc.) and some is more about creating a friendly, playful mood at the table. I think this is a very similar problem to playing a Stars rebuy tournament at a tight table. Some tables are lucky enough to have multiple all ins every hand and will finish the rebuy period with 100,000 chips on the table, others will finish with half that or less. But there are ways to loosen up a tight table.

[cbloom]

Newsflash : getting a good table draw is a big part of the luck needed to win tournaments!

edit : Foucault makes an excellent point that you can improve your own table. I'm sure this a lot of why so many pros play LAG, it makes the rocks uncomfortable and makes them loosen up and play back badly.

[LearnedfromTV]

Interesting take. This is my first World Series and one of the things I've been thinking about re: the main event is how much of an effect table draw will have on the way the tournament plays out for me. It seems the differences in approach (not style so much as approach to this specific event) would be wider in the main event than in any other tournament, making table draw more significant than normal. Especially Day 1 table draw b/c it does seem the structure is designed for a lot of chip movement/action on Day 2, which makes having chips after Day 1 so important. I like the Stars rebuy comparisons. Pros playing the main event very loose aggressive are something like the rebuy maniacs... they are making some -EV decisions early b/c of the potential reward they get from a big stack on Day 2 (the "second hour").

Also, when you try to maniac a rock table in a Stars rebuy, you usually just end up blowing through chips, which is what I imagine David is saying happens to all but the best of the LAGs in the Main Event when they are faced with a really tight table... especially in the early levels the chips they can't get enough reward for their risk if no one will gamble with them. They pick up the safe chips and get to 20K, but they can't win really big pots and get a real stack unless they catch a rare really big hand vs another really big hand situation.

[David Sklansky]

"Newsflash : getting a good table draw is a big part of the luck needed to win tournaments!"

Yes, but my point is that part of the luck of the draw is related to whether your table will be broken up that day. If it is you are better off even if the table you move to has equally skilled opponents.

[LearnedfromTV]

[ QUOTE ]
"Newsflash : getting a good table draw is a big part of the luck needed to win tournaments!"

Yes, but my point is that part of the luck of the draw is related to whether your table will be broken up that day. If it is you are better off even if the table you move to has equally skilled opponents.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ah. I glossed over this in my reading of the OP. Interesting.

David - since it seems many of us read your post and immediately drew comparisons to the online rebuys tournaments we play, I wonder how you would compare this phenomenon in the Main Event to, say, the $1000 rebuy (or any rebuy tournament where there are a lot of aggressive pros and a lot of guys on a budget hoping to get by on the minimum.)