how right do things have to go to win? a final table story.

elmitchbo · #1 01-19-2006, 01:30 PM

i just came in 5th out of a 1600 player field. that's my best finish to date for a field that large. i think my game has improved as of late.... thanks guys!! my ITM, and ROI are steadily improving, and i finally make a fianl table!

i felt like i was playing my normal game, but good fortune was on my side. early on i pushed all in with TT and got called by AA. i flop quads, and boom goes the dynamite. that put me near the chip lead. in the next level i got into a big tangle with another huge stack. this time i'm allin with KK against AA and i turn a K. now i'm the chip leader by a mile, but only because of two monster suck outs.

with the chip lead i rolled over the table. in the next 150 hands i won 35 without a showdown, and 45 overall. i had AK maybe 15 times in that stretch, and every time someone tried to make a stand it happened to be when i had big slick. i got sucked out on a few times, but it didn't matter. for the most part i had their AJ dominated or caught an A over their 44.

after losing a big hand (AQ vs. AA on a Q high flop) i was pulled back to the field a bit. i went a little card dry, but still managed to steal enough to keep my stack growing with the blinds.

with about 45 people left i went on a small pp bonanza. i got 33, 55, and 66 in a short stretch. each time i limped in. each time i fopped a set. i CR'd twice, and bet out once. three big pots and i'm back to being chip leader by a mile.

i cruise to the final table. the blinds finally caught up with everybody.

with 5 players left i'm 3rd in chips. the top 3 stacks are about $600k, $450k, and $375k(me). the botom 2 are $100k, and $25k. blinds are 10,000/20,000 ante 1,000.

this was the first time i've been faced with a 'if this guy bust out i get $X more' situation. it was 4am and i was getting delirious, but i think i should have known better than to continue with this hand.....

i've got KdQs. i call big stacks raise and 2nd stack over calls. flop comes AJ5 alll diamonds. i've got the nut flush draw and the straight draw.

it's checked to me and i bet out. big stack raises me allin, and i'm getting 3:1 on the call. i'm getting the odds i need to call and see 2 cards, but the small stack won't be able to post his blinds this orbit. call? or watch the small stack bust then start playing again?

i called, big stack shows AJ, and i'm out 5th. i think that was probably stupid. the idea of always pushing an edge gets tossed around here alot, and for the most part i agree. but i think this was a situation where i should have turned down the effective odds to avoid ruin. i could've slid into 3rd pretty easily if i'd been smart. it was 4am....

do things have to go this right to make it deep in a tourney like this? i don't think i played any better than normal. things just worked out everytime i tried. great cards most of the way, a couple of huge suck outs, and i was playing really well in between(particularly with the big stack).

the luck factor in MTT's might be more significant than i thought.

sorry for the lengthy ramble. just some thoughts and questions i had along the way.

Superfluous Man · #2 01-19-2006, 01:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]

the luck factor in MTT's might be more significant than i thought.

[/ QUOTE ]
I won't comment on the hand, as I don't think there's enough info there (HH/reads please). But the luck factor in any individual MTT is even bigger than you think it is now. If you get your stack in as a 4:1 favorite against a bigger stack three times in a given tournament, you're going to be busto about half the time.

I don't think I've ever made a final table without winning at least 2 coinflips along the way.

Jurollo · #3 01-19-2006, 01:47 PM

There is a big difference between winning flips and coming from way behind, most of the really good players here can get deep without laying big suck outs on others and simply winning a flip or two. While it is lucky it still comes down to getting your chips in with the best hand. The other big thing is being weary of getting all your chips in a coin flip situation when you have plenty of chips, going broke when unneccesary isn't a good thing.
~Justin

Vuron00 · #4 01-19-2006, 01:49 PM

Luck is huge. Not only do you have to win coinflips, but you have to get lucky in other ways....

Having a good seat a good table.
The right people busting at the right time.
Getting a big hand when somebody has a slightly worse hand and winning some huge pots.

There is, definately, a lot of skill involved in making final tables, but you will always need some luck (or lack of bad luck) to get there.

elmitchbo · #5 01-19-2006, 01:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

the luck factor in MTT's might be more significant than i thought.

[/ QUOTE ]
I won't comment on the hand, as I don't think there's enough info there (HH/reads please). But the luck factor in any individual MTT is even bigger than you think it is now. If you get your stack in as a 4:1 favorite against a bigger stack three times in a given tournament, you're going to be busto about half the time.

I don't think I've ever made a final table without winning at least 2 coinflips along the way.

[/ QUOTE ]

i've never made the MONEY without winning more than 2 coin flips.

i might suck.

bruce · #6 01-19-2006, 01:49 PM

If you read hand histories of tournament winners you will see, in addition to playing well, they all get lucky somewhere along the way. They win a much higher percentage of coin flips, their big pocket pairs hold up, and they find themselves in spots where they have a big pocket pair against a not so big pocket pair. It also helps when you can outflop your opponents also. But I don't think you situation is unique.

Bruce

whynot? · #7 01-19-2006, 01:56 PM

and usually a suckout or two - think the trick is to avoid the hu situation as much as possible cus stuff happens. still need to be aggressive so a couple of suckouts and a couple of coinflips are essential.

also think timing of those are pretty key - meaning winning a big hand in the first hour can put you in a good position but in the third or fourth hour can put from an average or below average stack to a chip leader -

elmitchbo · #8 01-19-2006, 02:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
There is a big difference between winning flips and coming from way behind, most of the really good players here can get deep without laying big suck outs on others and simply winning a flip or two. While it is lucky it still comes down to getting your chips in with the best hand. The other big thing is being weary of getting all your chips in a coin flip situation when you have plenty of chips, going broke when unneccesary isn't a good thing.
~Justin

[/ QUOTE ]

i think it would be next to impossible to get to a final table in a field that big without laying a suckout on someone. if you play so tight that you never get in without the best hand, not even once, then you won't accumulate chips fast enough to stay ahead of the blinds.

it seems like keeping up with the blinds requires a wide enough range and enough aggression that you're inevitably going to find yourself pushing into a bigger hand. other wise you'll lay down the best hand too often and get no action when you do have a big hand, and wind up blinding out.

a coin flip with the risk of going broke is one thing.... but if i'm stiing at $150k while the table is sitting at $15k-$35k shouldn't i be happy to find coin flips? if i'm stealing alot of blinds and some guy plays back a coin flip is no big deal, right?

adanthar · #9 01-19-2006, 02:27 PM

I do win flips/suck out most of the time when I go deep (pulled a 5/95 on somebody to get to one of my FT's last night...that's a first, though*), but sometimes you manufacture your own luck.

Example: Big stack raises and you call with KQ. KQ is close to a monster 5 handed if you had 8 BB, but there's a microstack in with you and you have 20 BB. I probably call here too, but I might push and I might fold depending on how tight he's been.

So you call and flop a 12 outer on an ace high board. I would rather not bet here because if I'm checkraised it's for my stack as a dog with the microstack cheering the hand on. Instead, I'll check and maybe CR the overcaller, or fold to a bet/CR, or do something else that involves seeing a turn. If I am playing for my stack in this situation it will be as the aggressor, and maybe someone will make a big mistake like laying down QJ.

*Or, you can get your chips in with top pair vs. a made flush and runner runner a boat. That works, too.

bestcellar · #10 01-19-2006, 02:34 PM

I haven't won a single MTT since joining stars last june, and it depresses me all the time. I think I've FT'd something like 15 times. A lot of it has to do with me playing way too weak tight, in my opinion.

I do have one third and one second where I was all in with the best hand p/f.