"Variance happens...."

[ItalianFX]

My friend and I were talking about poker tonight. He doesn't take the game seriously, he thinks he can beat the game by the push of a button.

Here is what he said to me, "variance happens yes, but you can avoid losses by playing good poker."

I told him that you can't avoid losses.

Anybody take his side?

[Etric]

Too vague. Losses of what? Hands? Money? You can't avoid losing either of those.

Long term losses? Yes, you can avoid that by playing good poker.

[ItalianFX]

He hasn't played long-term, so this applies to short-term and money. He tells me about his swings in his bankroll, but I don't think he understands variance that well.

[jacket34]

i'm with you...cant control the short run

[TexArcher]

You can play flawless poker all month and you will inevitably have some losing sessions, it's just part of the game.

[KKbluff]

It also depends on the limits you are playing, dont forget that!

[Stereolab]

No matter how good you are if you play the game long enough you are going to experience downswings. Now if you play B&M and have psychic abilities then its debatable.

[Spicymoose]

Wasn't I just having this conversation with you? Glad to see you are on the other side of the coin now.

[soko]

I say explaining this to him is like explaining it to a brick wall, you don't understand variance until you experience variance.

[HutchEmAll]

They key word in my opinion is "avoid". A better word would be "limit" in my opinion.

Let's say you consistently are getting deep into tournaments only to bust out when on the bubble for the money being a 4:1 favorite on every hand (let's say you lose when someone pops you with a 2 outer). Let's say that happens 3 or 4 times in a row. You've played good poker. Put yourself in a situation to win money. Put your money in as a 4:1 favorite (about as good as it gets in poker) and end up sucking out.

How could you possibly play better poker? One could say, "don't risk all your money pre-flop like that." Well, if you're folding as a 4:1 favorite no matter what the bet is, you're playing lousy poker.

Because luck is an element of poker, you're going to lose from time to time.

Remember what Hellmuth says, "if there wasn't luck involved, I'd win 'em all" [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]