100/200 hand: good, bad, ugly?

[Fianchetto]

100/200 B&M full game, my image is pretty tight at this point.

Tight aggressive player raises UTG, I 3-bet UTG+2 with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], folded around to UTG who calls. We're heads up.

Flop: 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

He checks, I bet, he calls.

Turn: K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

He checks, I bet, he raises, I call and plan on raising almost any river card except probably a K.

River: 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

He bets, I raise, he 3-bets....now what?


Comments on all streets appreciated.

[haakee]

I would fold here against most of the TAGs in that game. None of them are going to 3-bet bluff you or do this with AK, and I think it's too rare that you'll be up against the other AA here. He's probably got a set of 8s.

[Nikla]

I'd never ever fold AA here. Call and be happy about your play.

[Jay.]

def. fold. well played.

[StacysMom]

Making sure I understand the vlaue of this line.

You call the turn as hes most likely on AK with 2 outs and surely leading the river allowing you to put in an exta bet when he didnt hit the 2 outs as oposed to when he still can.

In addition, do you raise a Q on the river?

If you put the Q in his range, is that enough possible river scare cards that you should 3 bet the turn?

[vypremik]

[ QUOTE ]
100/200 B&M full game, my image is pretty tight at this point.

Tight aggressive player raises UTG, I 3-bet UTG+2 with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], folded around to UTG who calls. We're heads up.

[/ QUOTE ]

Standard pre-flop play. The rest of the table had to be scared of two tight players leading out with raises, so it is no surprise that only the two of you are left.

He has a hand, and he knows you have a hand, too. He could lead out with most any PP, probably down to eights or so. AKo and AQo are possibilities. AJo and KQo are possible, but less likely. Suited connectors down to about JT would make sense. He could also be playing hands a bit lower than these to mix up his image or to take advantage of it.

He probably put you on a similar set of cards, excluding the lower hands mentioned.

The fact that he didn't choose to re-raise may mean he doesn't have a powerhouse and respects your hand. It could mean he is slow-playing, too.

[ QUOTE ]
Flop: 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

He checks, I bet, he calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

This flop isn't likely to have helped anyone, so it is a bit surprising he didn't take the lead and bet out at it. Maybe he thinks he is behind, maybe he is slow-playing.

Since his last action was a call, not a bet, it doesn't mean too much that he checked. It is significant that he did not raise. He is either showing weakness for the second time or planning on getting more money into the pot on the more expensive turn.

He probably thinks the flop missed you and that you are making a continuation bet, so his call here is a normal move.

[ QUOTE ]
Turn: K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

He checks, I bet, he raises, I call and plan on raising almost any river card except probably a K.

[/ QUOTE ]

It is interesting that he check-raised here. If he put you on a weak hand (or drawing hand) and figured you had put in a continuation bet, a check here is wrong. He may have been hoping you would bet so he could raise you. So one interpretation of this is that he believes you have strength and he still wanted to raise you here. That is a bit scary.

If he has real strength, he almost certainly has a King. AK or KQs are the most likely holdings here (both of which you would like to see).

KK is possible, too, but I am a bit surprised he didn't CR you on the flop if he had KK. With the texture of the flop and your bet, He could easily guess you had Ax, with a high x. He at least had to consider it. Why wouldn't he try to chase you out on the flop before you had the chance to draw into your Ace?

Further, if he was slow-playing KK and a third K came, why would he suddenly decide to change strategies and try to scare you out now? How many good players do you know that slow play high pairs and push trips? On the other hand, there is only one more hand of betting, so it is not impossible.

There is a third possibility. He may think you have a pocket pair QQ - 99 and believe that he can scare you into thinking he has a K. It is a bit of an aggressive play, but I have seen it done often enough.

If he either had a king, or bluffed a king, then your call after his CR was seen by him as weakness and gave him all of the fuel he needed to finish the hand aggressively.

Of course, he could have been slow-playing trip eights. It would fit.

The fact that you did just call with the intention of playing out the hand is an ok play. It is always a bit dangerous to switch from aggression to slow-playing late in a hand. First, because the other players can catch up. Second, because we can sometimes talk ourselves out of a good hand.

[ QUOTE ]
River: 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

He bets, I raise, he 3-bets....now what?

[/ QUOTE ]

His bet here, although aggressive, is expected, based upon your lack of aggression on the turn. Your raise is a good move. You are telling him that you still have a hand.

But he knows, as well as you do, that the 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] didn't do anything for either of your hands. It is an extreme long-shot that either of you played a straight draw or 66 to this point.

So what is he telling you? Does he think you are claiming the six helped you? Does he believe that you switched to slow-playing on the turn? Does he sense real weakness in you?

By not playing the turn aggressively, you have created some uncertainty about your hand and there is a good chance he thinks he has you beat.

The third bet is a bit disturbing. He has either put you on a missed hand, or he really thinks he can beat you. Either way, I think he does have a hand.

I think AK is most likely. There is a good chance of KQs. 88 is possible. So are 44 and 33 (although much less likely). KJs or KTs are possibilities, although unlikely. There is a small chance of a bluff, but I don't think he is bluffing here.

The best move is probably to call. There is too much money in the pot to lay your hand down. He isn't going away, but you shouldn't be either.

If he has trips, you are beat. That's poker. If he doesn't, you should win.

The only other hand that you could lose to would be two pair or a straight, and I don't see a tight player playing either of these hands that way.

[The Bride]

[ QUOTE ]
Standard pre-flop play. The rest of the table had to be scared of two tight players leading out with raises, so it is no surprise that only the two of you are left.

He has a hand, and he knows you have a hand, too. He could lead out with most any PP, probably down to eights or so. AKo and AQo are possibilities. AJo and KQo are possible, but less likely. Suited connectors down to about JT would make sense. He could also be playing hands a bit lower than these to mix up his image or to take advantage of it.

He probably put you on a similar set of cards, excluding the lower hands mentioned.

The fact that he didn't choose to re-raise may mean he doesn't have a powerhouse and respects your hand. It could mean he is slow-playing, too.

[/ QUOTE ]

Phew, glad you explained that to me [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[AceHigh]

[ QUOTE ]
He bets, I raise, he 3-bets....now what?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would call, unless you know this player real well...isn't there a chance he has AK and thinks he's likely splitting the pot?

[Chris Daddy Cool]

if this is at bay101, nobody ever ever ever 3 bets that river without beating you. you need to fold here.

[Hock_]

Nice line to the river. The river is totally player/read dependent.