Should I fold JJ on the bubble here?

[AMT]

something also has to be spoken for a read here. generally i too lean towards calling. youre not behind both players and as stated you only dont make the money if you lost to both players. however, if either player is like a 15/5 or something youre not gonna want to be calling with a hand that is unlikely to be best. take that into account, but if for some reason theres no read i call.

[microbet]

[ QUOTE ]
You have to call this. Your hand is just too good. The following ranges seem pretty reasonable to me.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 21.3141 % 20.69% 00.63% { 22+, A2s+, K4s+, Q5s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, A5o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 2: 33.3188 % 32.47% 00.85% { 77+, ATs+, KQs, ATo+ }
Hand 3: 45.3670 % 44.79% 00.58% { JJ }

You have more then enough hand to play this pot and remember that you have to come in last to not make the money. I'll do an ICM, but calling is probably + 2.0% or more.

Fold - .2998 and .2573
Call - .4396 (win) and .2535 (2nd)

So if it is 63/37 in favor of the short stack if you fold, your fold equity is 27.3%

If you call and are 69/31 favorite over the big stack, your equity is

Win (45.4%)
2nd (23.0%)
3rd (21.3%)
OOTM (10.3%)

Total = 30.0% equity if you call

EV calling = + 2.7%

I'm going to stab myself the next time I see, "play for 3rd" or "play for 1st". That is all nonsense. You make the play with the highest expectation.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hadn't thought of this before, but neither pokerstove nor SNGPT are really up to this task. When you get the percentages for how well JJ does vs. either of these ranges by themselves, you ignore the other villian's range. You will end up doing better than predicted because their outs will be more dead than if those cards were random.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You have to call this. Your hand is just too good. The following ranges seem pretty reasonable to me.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 21.3141 % 20.69% 00.63% { 22+, A2s+, K4s+, Q5s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, A5o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 2: 33.3188 % 32.47% 00.85% { 77+, ATs+, KQs, ATo+ }
Hand 3: 45.3670 % 44.79% 00.58% { JJ }

You have more then enough hand to play this pot and remember that you have to come in last to not make the money. I'll do an ICM, but calling is probably + 2.0% or more.

Fold - .2998 and .2573
Call - .4396 (win) and .2535 (2nd)

So if it is 63/37 in favor of the short stack if you fold, your fold equity is 27.3%

If you call and are 69/31 favorite over the big stack, your equity is

Win (45.4%)
2nd (23.0%)
3rd (21.3%)
OOTM (10.3%)

Total = 30.0% equity if you call

EV calling = + 2.7%

I'm going to stab myself the next time I see, "play for 3rd" or "play for 1st". That is all nonsense. You make the play with the highest expectation.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hadn't thought of this before, but neither pokerstove nor SNGPT are really up to this task. When you get the percentages for how well JJ does vs. either of these ranges by themselves, you ignore the other villian's range. You will end up doing better than predicted because their outs will be more dead than if those cards were random.

[/ QUOTE ]

sorry if this has been covered already, but the bigger problem is that the matchups are not independent. for example, if villains have AK and AQ, then those times that hero wins the main pot, he is extra likely to win the side as well (because an A is not on the board). i believe the analysis assumes that you run a 3-way board for the main and then another 2-way board for the side. i'm not aware of any program that lets you deal with this.

[Mark1978]

To do it correctly you would need to run it with dead cards for each hand in the the third players range, and average out the EV. Painful.

[tigerite]

[ QUOTE ]

I hadn't thought of this before, but neither pokerstove nor SNGPT are really up to this task. When you get the percentages for how well JJ does vs. either of these ranges by themselves, you ignore the other villian's range. You will end up doing better than predicted because their outs will be more dead than if those cards were random.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's not true with pokerstove, you can do 3-way all-ins and yes it does allow for cards being dead.

[tigerite]

By the way I've done 3-way calculations (by hand) before and posted them, so it definitely can be done. To prove the pokerstove thing, try AA v AA v AA..

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

games 0.100 secs games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: -1.#IND % -1.#J% -1.#J% { AA }
Hand 2: -1.#IND % -1.#J% -1.#J% { AA }
Hand 3: -1.#IND % -1.#J% -1.#J% { AA }

[miami32]

At first, I thought this was a fold. Just play for the money I thought, but now that I think about it, I think it's a must call. You figure UTG is pushing 66 or higher, maybe any pp. He could also be pushing AK,AQ, AJ, A10 and so forth. The caller could also have a pp, but he could also have another big ace as well. Considering the fact that one of the players is also all in as well. So you could be in great shape considering that there is a small chance they may be drawing at two outs to hit an ace. I think considering all these things combined, and the fact that even if you lose, you still most likely with get 3rd but if you win, you pretty much have a real good shot for winning it all and I think that it makes it a call.

[tigerite]

By the way I'd call. I'd probably go with it with TT as well, but 99 and below would be too borderline and I'd let them go. Also AKo would probably be a fold and AKs a close one.

[Blarg]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm calling this.

The chances of you losing to both players is quite low and that's the only real disaster scenario. That's something I'm just not going to worry about in this particular situation. The blinds are pretty high.

There's quite a reasonable chance one of them has a lower pair and one of them has an Ace (or something like that). You have a very good chance of having the best hand. JJ is big. Call.

Ryan

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, chances are pretty decent that one or both of them has an ace, king, or queen. The chances of them both hitting their card within the five cards to come isn't really all that small; there's also the chance they could get lucky and get flushes and straights, of course, or even two pair while you're stuck with one, or even trips. There are plenty of possibilities. They could also have you beat going in, of course, with higher pairs. Or maybe one will have a higher pair and the other guy will hit his ace.

JJ is a good hand, but JJ getting beaten by two players, one of whom had a good enough hand to raise another, doesn't seem so far fetched to me.

Whether it's worth the risk is another thing. But winding up with the worst hand doesn't seem something so unlikely that it can be more or less dismissed.

[tigerite]

It doesn't matter if we lose to one of them though, that's the thing. We'd have to lose to both in an exact order to get 4th. JJ is too good to fold here.