outdoing tommy, andy fox, and maybe even TxRedMan!

[mike l.]

"On every one of those specific hands, the right play, in metaland, for me and my opponents, was to fold preflop."

me too. and while i bag on you a lot still, i have to admit your teachings inspired me in this direction.

now you were on a quest to fold AA and that was good, but im going to be on a quest to fold KK preflop knowing (and confirming correctly) im against AA. i was half way there one time in a 20 game with justin sitting right next to me to witness it, but chickened out only to cap instead and get shown an AA that lost to a set of TT (i did have the correct guy on AA to my credit). but that was at least a year ago, i sucked then. i had AA a couple months ago and my opponent had KK and we went like 9 bets preflop and 3 on the flop and one on the turn and the river (dark) and he rivered a set. so that one's all backwards. no, i need to have KK and fold preflop in a limit game against AA. and i will. and then i will post about it.

[andyfox]

I dunno, guys. I'm with skp on this one. That you might play badly post-flop is not an argument for not playing a particular hand. It's an argument for not playing at all.

There's an argument to be made that if you know X opponent has A-A or K-K, he's just not that tough an opponent; in fact, such an argument was made in a thread I initiated recently. I would also argue that as a skilled player, you use your skills to avoid making bad plays post-flop.

Now you could argue that a particular situation is -EV because you're going to win a small pot or lose a large one; Mike has made this point when he says that the typical 1-2 player doesn't make huge post-flop mistakes. But I still don't buy that a good player should be folding because he's afraid he'll play badly post-flop.

I watched this hand yesterday involving a 2+2er. The 2+2er open-raised from early position. He was 3-bet by a pretty tight but losing player. The 2+2er 4-bet and was called by his opponent. Flop came Q-7-3. 2+2er bet and opponent called. Turn was a blank; 2+2er bet and opponent called again.

Now opponent knew right then and there that the 2+2er had either pocket aces or pocket queens. How sure was he? Well, the river was a blank and the bet-call was repeated. 2+2er showed pocket aces and opponent disgustedly showed pocket kings.

Irrespective of the details of the hand, opponent knew he was beat. He knew it. But he couldn't throw his hand away. I contrast that with a hand I saw Doyle Brunson play against Chip Reese on TV the other night and Brunson threw away pocket queens on a raggedy flop. The others at the table saw Doyle flash a queen and assumed he threw away A-Q. But Doyle knew he was beat. (Chip Reese had pocket kings.)

I know, there's a big difference between limit and no-limit, but I think the point is valid anyway: There's a reason why Doyle is Doyle and the 2+2er's opponent is a losing 20-40 player. You play a hand knowing, going in, that you're going to play your best poker, not fearing you're going to muck it up.

[skp]

[ QUOTE ]
"Heck, you could probably tell yourself that you will fold even if the flop comes KJx or AJx and still be better off than folding preflop."

i disagree. that just sounds silly.

[/ QUOTE ]

True. It is silly. But how often are you going to flop a set of jacks and a King or Ace comes with it? I guess the point I was making is that folding preflop may be less profitable than calling preflop with the intention of proceeding only when you flop a Jack with no Ace or King.

Perhaps, the math types can check this out. I may well be wrong. But if I am right, it will just accentuate how wrong it was to fold preflop.

[skp]

[ QUOTE ]
"The argument that you might get sucked in for bets postflop is not a reason to fold preflop."

Actually it's the only argument. And it's a good one, for those it applies to, which I guess is me and mike, and most of my opponents over the years. I can testify to thousands of data points on this issue, as the one getting paid all the way postflop by the lower pair who is absolutely certain I have a big pair but calls anyway, and as the one with the lower pair who is absolutely certain I am beat but call all three postflop streets anyway. On every one of those specific hands, the right play, in metaland, for me and my opponents, was to fold preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

But in most of those spots, your opponents were making bad calls postflop. I was referring to the situation where you make good calls postflop. There, the fact that you made good postflop plays and went on to lose money (because you missed) does not make the preflop call bad.

Now, there are spots where some yahoo calls 3 bets cold in a 6 way pot with 43s and finds that he has the necessary pot odds to go to the river where the statement of mine which you have quoted would not be true. But that's not what we are talking about here. Basically, Mike l. in his original post concedes that he has the necessary pot plus implied odds to see a flop but he chose not to do so because of what might happen postflop.

I am simply saying that the remedy there is to play better postflop instead of making a bad preflop fold.

[mike l.]

"But I still don't buy that a good player should be folding because he's afraid he'll play badly post-flop."

that isnt really what im saying. there are a lot of times in hold em when nobody is making an error.

for instance, if the flop comes KQ9 w/ two of my suit, i will have to contend with the following possibilities:

--my opponent may have a set (or my opponent behind me) so a J may not be an out for me.
--button may have a T so a J may not be an out. but it might be right to raise and try and knock him off a hand with a T in it.
--my backdoor flush outs may or may not help me. they could back me into the winner in this big pot or cost me still more.
--im getting 14.5 to 1 on the flop so i should continue when sb bets into me, but i have to be concerned that button may foolishly or correctly raise behind me. if sb 3 bets im still getting laid a very inviting price. it's another close decision. that's to not even mention the turn.
--how much action will i get if i catch a T or J and my hand is good? how much action will i face if im beat? what if someone with a set sucks out on the river? i am good enough to fold for one bet in a big pot on the river, but will i be comfortable doing that against button who might have something like KJ or QJ for a chop should the turn be a T?

take a flop of A72 all spades and i have Js.
--am i drawing dead to a bigger flush draw?
--am i against a set of aces with a significant redraw against me even if i catch?
--can i fold the flop getting 14.5 to 1? no.
--what if button foolishly raises AhQh behind me on the flop? should i raise the flop to try to get him to fold something like QhQd or KhQs? should i see if i can get sb to fold KhKd? what's the right amount of action to put in? when do i lay my hand down in this big pot without making an error and folding a draw far better than my set draw preflop?

there are a lot of flops like this, a significant amount. it isnt that hero will be playing poorly postflop, it's that he will be in a sticky situation because he knows sb has AA or KK but button may not be so quick to figure that out, and once you get to the flop and have a hand of some value like a pair and a gutter or a pair and a flush draw it's hard to know where youre at and to know more than that you are just going to lose some chips, sometimes even if you hit a card you become showdown committed with, or at least river committed.

this is why what josh said about 66 being a clear call preflop, but JJ being not so bad a fold. JJ gets tangled up in things like QJT and AJT and other flops where it can be a real RIO nightmare.

"You play a hand knowing, going in, that you're going to play your best poker, not fearing you're going to muck it up."

for me part of playing my best poker is avoiding spots like this especially when i have so many juicier, easier spots presenting themselves all the time. it's a close spot when you take everything into account and there's no shame in just folding and moving on.

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

[ QUOTE ]

one thing i was talking about with gabe: in the 1-2 game, while it is a very good game, the players in general are less prone to making serious errors postflop than they would be in a 20 or 40 game. so your earn with your good hands postflop is less and your loss with your second bests is more.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know if I agree with this. Good players still put in too much action with second-best hands at 100/200 -- in fact, they may put in more action than 20/40 players. Thus, hands that can make top pair nut kicker or better (I DO include AK in this bunch) should hold up very well for themselves. A GREAT player might know when just to call down with QQ on a raggish board against a probable higher overpair (the limit equivalent of folding this hand in no limit), but those guys are few and far between.

It's the trouble hands that tend to cringe whenever the postflop action becomes fast and furious that, well, tend to get you into trouble against tougher opponents. It's become trendy lately for people to 3-bet lighter and lighter -- with hands like KJo and A8s and their ilk -- and I wonder if that sort of thing isn't hurting their winrates.

[andyfox]

Best post of the thread. Bravo.

"for me part of playing my best poker is avoiding spots like this especially when i have so many juicier, easier spots presenting themselves all the time."

Who on this board who has played with both of us would have thunk that, in this discussion, it would have been you posting this, and not me? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[mike l.]

"Who on this board who has played with both of us would have thunk that, in this discussion, it would have been you posting this, and not me?"

weve learned from each other. awesome.

[Ray Zee]

sounds like you finally turned into a nit. i cant believe it. so if i ever do get to that crappy city again and we go out to eat you are going to have to sit across the table.
this applies to andy as well for implying he would fold this. tommy is consistant so i dont worry about him.
you do need to call in this spot.

[mike l.]

you appear!

me and someone i dont remember who were talking about you and wondering if you ever will in fact make it out here some day, when we saw you had made the umpteenth visit to SF. we're very bitter. get your ass out here!