Live Turn Checkraise

[f97tosc]

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i missed this post completely. at the table i guesstimated 10% for simplicity, knowing it was high.

did you factor in implied odds, rico?

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The implied odds have very small impact in this problem. The only way the extra river bets causes a difference between call and c/r is if he folds AND we would have hit the straight, a rather rare combination for the folding probabilities of interest.

So I think esso has factored it in right but it only changes the probability from 5.5% to 5.6%.

[Aces McGee]

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You give players too much credit. Player trying to play well could easily have a hand like 1010 JJ or KK.

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Seriously?

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I don't doubt that Mike's serious, but I happen to think he's wrong here. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

-McGee

[KitCloudkicker]

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Player trying to play well could easily have a hand like 1010 JJ or KK.

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[mtdoak]

I guess this really depends on my read on the guy. He's "trying to play well", almost everyone tries to play well. I guess my question is, can he get off a hand? IMHO, i doubt he's folding AK. IMHO, its a good move if you are 50/50 that he will fold for 1 bet on the the turn. However, given the action, 3 bet preflop, raise on the flop, you are likely looking at AK, maybe an aggro played AQs. I doubt he has JJ, or TT, as I think he probably goes into the tank after the flop. So, given his likley holdings, AK or AQs, possibly AA or QQ waiting to pop you for three. If he has KK, he might muck, but all the other holdings are likely to at least go to showdown. Its highly highly read dependent, however.

[James.]

guys, he needs to fold 5-6% of his range. surely AJs, KK, and a heavily discounted JJ/TT(maybe one combo each or total) constitute that.

[Aces McGee]

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guys, he needs to fold 5-6% of his range. surely AJs, KK, and a heavily discounted JJ/TT(maybe one combo each or total) constitute that.

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I don't give him JJ/TT even that often. I think he checks KK behind almost always, given that it's not heads up (which I really think people need to address). He could have AJs (and he probably would be folding it here once he decides to bet, but I don't know that he three-bangs it preflop, and I think he chooses to check behind a fair amount with that hand, too.

-McGee

[Ricks]

Assuming you must hit your draw to win a showdown and if they do not fold the turn one or both will go to showdown.

If you just call the turn and win 2 bets on the river when you hit, your EV is:

(8/46*14.5)+(38/46-1) = +2.35

If you win only 1 bet on the river:

(8/46*13.5)+(38/46-1) = +2.17

If they will both fold to your turn raise 5% of the time. When one or both do not fold you will win 2 BB more if you hit your draw, your EV is:

(.05*12.5)+(.95*8/46*14.5)+(.95*38/46*-2) = +1.45

If you will win 3 BB more:

(.05*12.5)+(.95*8/46*15.5)+(.95*38/46*-2) = +1.61

If you will win 4 BB more:

(.05*12.5)+(.95*8/46*16.5)+(.95*38/46*-2) = +1.78


If they fold 10% of the time:

(.10*12.5)+(.90*8/46*14.5)+(.90*38/46*-2) = +2.03

(.10*12.5)+(.90*8/46*15.5)+(.90*38/46*-2) = +2.19

(.10*12.5)+(.90*8/46*16.5)+(.90*38/46*-2) = +2.34

[chesspain]

Spewtastic!

[Xhad]

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You give players too much credit. Player trying to play well could easily have a hand like 1010 JJ or KK.

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Seriously?

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I don't doubt that Mike's serious, but I happen to think he's wrong here. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

-McGee

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Raising that flop with JJ/TT multiway is so dumb I would not have given the read "trying to play well" without further elaboration if I thought villain would do such a thing.

[James.]

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Raising that flop with JJ/TT multiway is so dumb I would not have given the read "trying to play well" without further elaboration if I thought villain would do such a thing.

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doubt that he would raise it with JJ or TT. KK for sure, though. some queens would certainly be in my pf range and KK beats them.

understand what "trying to play well" can often mean. a player that has read, and is aware of certain concepts, but isn't so good at recognizing and applying them. classic mistakes are unwarranted aggression and making incorrect "big" laydowns. these are highly exploitable tendencies against such a player.