Live Turn Checkraise
 

live 10/20

my image is tighter than usual, and i'm running pretty well and up about 30bbs over the past few hours.

i open with J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] UTG1, 2 loosepassives coldcall, a tight player trying to play well 3bets on the button, blinds fold, i seriously consider a cap because i know the loose passives will often call, but i opt to only call. the two fish call as well.

Flop(4 players, 13.5sb): A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

i bet, 2 passives call, button raises, i 3bet, one of the passives now fold, other loosepassive and button call.

Turn(11.5bb): 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

i check, LP checks, button bets, and i checkraise.

Re: Live Turn Checkraise
 

you really think villain is folding AK?

maybe you should simultaneously tell him that AK is no good lol. people trying to play well dont like it when you can read them like a book.

Re: Live Turn Checkraise
 

If "trying to play well" means "playing weak-tight," then sure, I guess this is okay. Otherwise, you're asking him to put you on a very narrow range of hands and act on that read in a very large pot. And you're often going to have to fire the river.

EDIT: just noticed that you're not heads up. Now I like it even less. Sure, if the other guy folds you may get the button to laydown a little more often because of the protected pot, but probably not as often as the loose guy calls down with some middling ace.

-McGee

Re: Live Turn Checkraise
 

I would have thought open-raisng JTs from EP FR in a SS live (loose) game would be bad. I would usually limp in my live 10-20 game.

I don't think the turn aggression is good. I think the button and/or the other guy will pay you off. If you get this HU and don't improve would a river bluff be profitable on some cards?

Re: Live Turn Checkraise
 

My only concern is that this board is so disconnected that your c/r looks too much like a play, even if your image is good. If I am the Button, the most you get from me is a call now and a call down on the river. I have the position to see if you are for real or not.

The c/r is a powerful tool and I would have chosen to unleash it AFTER I fill my belly buster straight which would be a fairly stealthly hand on this board.

And, if you miss on the river, you potentially save a BB as well. I vote to hold off on the c/r.

Re: Live Turn Checkraise
 

james - i think this is total spew [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: Live Turn Checkraise
 

[ QUOTE ]
My only concern is that this board is so disconnected that your c/r looks too much like a play, even if your image is good.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is something I don't know much about, but I think I diagree with you. I don't think this generally looks like a play. This isn't a board that is particularly likely to have missed the button's range, and it's not a drawy board where a semi-bluff seems likely (JT would be the only strong draw here). I don't think it's a board that encourages a call down.

I don't like the turn aggression, but not on the grounds that it doesn't appear that we always have a hand to anyone observant.

Re: Live Turn Checkraise
 

BBB,

thanks for the thoughtful analysis. assuming it gets HU, by your calculations how often does villain need to fold for this to show profit?

Re: Live Turn Checkraise
 

james - i wasn't being sarcastic...?

it seems like he has a big hand that he's not going to fold and we're just charging ourselves for our big (well disguised) draw that could pay off well if we hit it

Re: Live Turn Checkraise
 

[ QUOTE ]
BBB,

thanks for the thoughtful analysis. assuming it gets HU, by your calculations how often does villain need to fold for this to show profit?

[/ QUOTE ]


Assume that you always win on 9 or K and never otherwise; this happens with 8/46 probability. Assume villain will never reraise your c/r.

Your expected loss if he calls is 8/46-38/46 = -30/46 bb.

If he folds you gain his share of the pot: (11.5+2)*38/46 bb

We seek the breakeven point if he folds with probability P:

(1-P)*30/46 = P* 13.5*38/46
30=(30+13.5*38)P
P=~5.5%

So if he folds 5.5% or more often you are OK; if he sometimes reraises your c/r then you need better odds.