Calling off all your chips with 99

[bowski44]

If you think your getting +EV I can't see how you pass it up. With 55% equity in calling all in you get + EV of t6675. However, if you only have 7500 (one time through blinds) you need a 59% equity edge to equal the 55 your getting now and if you let the blinds go through you again you'll need a 65% equity edge to equal what your getting now. These calculations assume that nobody picks up a big hand behind you to overcall. The relative Ms are 6, 5, and 4. Since your on the button your assuming you can find a better edge then 55% in the next 7 hands or an edge > 59% in the next 9 hands or > 65% in those next 9 hands. I think the odds are against you in picking up AK,JJ+ in those next two rounds or QQ-AA (I don't think AK has a 65% edge, I may be wrong) in the third round or AA and KK from then on. You need to gamble while you still have chips.

[Ansky]

Word.

[Jurollo]

[ QUOTE ]
If you think your getting +EV I can't see how you pass it up. With 55% equity in calling all in you get + EV of t6675. However, if you only have 7500 (one time through blinds) you need a 59% equity edge to equal the 55 your getting now and if you let the blinds go through you again you'll need a 65% equity edge to equal what your getting now. These calculations assume that nobody picks up a big hand behind you to overcall. The relative Ms are 6, 5, and 4. Since your on the button your assuming you can find a better edge then 55% in the next 7 hands or an edge > 59% in the next 9 hands or > 65% in those next 9 hands. I think the odds are against you in picking up AK,JJ+ in those next two rounds or QQ-AA (I don't think AK has a 65% edge, I may be wrong) in the third round or AA and KK from then on. You need to gamble while you still have chips.

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These calculations are fine but they do not consider your chances of opening from MP and taking the blinds, thus sustaining your M at the current level at the very least and putting your opponents to a tough call. You do not NEED to pick up JJ+ in the next orbit to have a chance to make a play, the cards are almost irrelevant as you are looking for spots to maintain your M with blind steals while waiting for a bigger hand to double up with.
~Justin

[bowski44]

i can't calculate all that so i kept it simple. But do you think pushing from the button w/ KTs is more +EV then making that call? I don't like putting my tourney on the fate of the cards I'm dealt. I don't understand how you can pass up a 55/45 (if thats what you think you are) with 9 big blinds. I think, especially in that tournament and at that stage, most players understand short stack play, and have good calling ranges for preflop all-ins. I don't think you can really outplay someone with that chip stack. Maybe its a flaw in my own game, and if it is, maybe one day I'll read a post on why it is.

[sawseech]

instacall

hijack(-) i might fold but on button there's no way in hell i'm releasing this

[prana]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you think your getting +EV I can't see how you pass it up. With 55% equity in calling all in you get + EV of t6675. However, if you only have 7500 (one time through blinds) you need a 59% equity edge to equal the 55 your getting now and if you let the blinds go through you again you'll need a 65% equity edge to equal what your getting now. These calculations assume that nobody picks up a big hand behind you to overcall. The relative Ms are 6, 5, and 4. Since your on the button your assuming you can find a better edge then 55% in the next 7 hands or an edge > 59% in the next 9 hands or > 65% in those next 9 hands. I think the odds are against you in picking up AK,JJ+ in those next two rounds or QQ-AA (I don't think AK has a 65% edge, I may be wrong) in the third round or AA and KK from then on. You need to gamble while you still have chips.

[/ QUOTE ]
These calculations are fine but they do not consider your chances of opening from MP and taking the blinds, thus sustaining your M at the current level at the very least and putting your opponents to a tough call. You do not NEED to pick up JJ+ in the next orbit to have a chance to make a play, the cards are almost irrelevant as you are looking for spots to maintain your M with blind steals while waiting for a bigger hand to double up with.
~Justin

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I think with this many people still you are looking to increase your "M". What if you win this hand and get favorable blind stealing situations? Does one really factor on the other because either may backfire but I want to win and if I give him a big enough range depending on his style I am definitely calling and still expecting for blind stealing situations.

[prana]

the more i think about this situation the more i think the opening range for the guy with 11k is tighter than some are suggesting

[tennismonkey]

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 1: 55.7040 % 55.09% 00.61% { 99 }
Hand 2: 44.2960 % 43.69% 00.61% { 22+, A9s+, KQs, A9o+ }

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Apologies for the newb question, but what do you use to get these stats?

Thanks in advance

[curtains]

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I would think a broader range in this spot. AK-A7, AA-66, 2 broadway. Against that 99 is a 55/45 favorite. Throw in some possibility of a smaller Ace, smaller pair, bluff and it's even more favorable. This is the perfect time to start picking up chips and I'd call.

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2 broadway? You think someone will go allin for 11x the BB 3 off the button with QTo? I suppose there are some such players, but I would never assume as such. Going allin here with KJo is probably very bad in a no ante game as well as moving allin with stuff like A7o. It really depends on how they play, because if they are a "solid" player, they arent going to just be randomly pushing with A9o here, as its almost surely -EV if you just do the math. (Although maybe not if pepole are folding 99!)

[Nez477]

So are you suggesting that A9 in MP in this point of a tourney with just 11BB is a fold? If it's not, then it's a push right? I don't see how raising 3xBB is a great option as it leaves you with just 8.

I think with folding equity a push here from MP is the best play. I could be wrong, but I think many players do this late in tournies. Party isn't my site, I play on Stars with antes, but even so picking up the 1.5BB when all fold makes this a +EV play right? I think pushing K-Q here is +EV too, as are some suited connectors like 8-9.

Maybe I'm wrong, but if you get called by 66+, AJ+ just 10% of the time it is +EV with all of the hands listed.

Brad