The poker gods giveth and they taketh away

[Grunch]

I fold becasue my gut tells me to.

Something a little more concrete?

He was either:
- slowplaying something the whole time (we win or chop)
- drawing & made it (we lose sometimes chop)
- blocking the river (we win)
- value betting the river (we lose)

#2 & #4 seem most likely to me, and since those are 'we lose' heavy, I fold.

[notevenhere]

[ QUOTE ]
Ugh .. I think I must be super-bad at explaining things today. I don't think Villain is bluffing to represent the spade flush either. I don't think an unknown villain is bluffing here very much at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, you're explaining yourself adequately. We both agree that this river bet is not a bluff.

[ QUOTE ]
Villain has to be pretty balsy to bet rivered trips on that board. Call, call, call, lead and no chance of a flush?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think it is too ballsy. Villain called a 3/4 pot bet on the turn. With Q J 10 8 on the board. So either he does not fear the straight, too dumb to see the straight possibility, or simply does not believe you have it.

IMO, he has to fear the straight, unless he has the straight, seeing as how a straight is nuts at this point. If he has the straight, we win or split.

If he does not believe you have it on the turn, the 10 at the river is not going to scare him. So open raise with trips is valid.

If he is too stupid to see the straight, then obviously trips is once again a hand he open raises with.

[aces_dad]

I originally wanted to fold, but now I think the value bet can be a one card str8 often enough, to warrant call.

I generally hate calling big for just a split but I don't think we split as often as first appears given turn/river action.

[Poker Fool]

As a general note I like a pot bet on the turn

Well this is horrible, everything that might go wrong has gone wrong on the river and villian has decided he likes it.

It really does feel like someone has just caught their flush, i think the sets and the straights would try to extract from you at an earlier stage of the hand.

So now I am left with trying to decide if I am playing against a chaser, someone passive or someone with enough smarts to bet the scare card.

I believe you are going to be meeting more people that fall into the first two categories.

If I were to call it would be a crying call and these tend not to be winners.

I fold here and try to put it out of my mind as fast as possible (which will be sometime next week).

[fish43]

>>list hands that villain could play this way:

I think JJ, TT could be played like this by a passive player.

>>JT[,QT] : ... doesn't he pop us with that draw heavy board earlier in the hand?<<

The villian is out of position and in blind defense mode with a board that has 1 card straight and a FD. I think passive a c/c plan is a reasonable line until his full house hits on the river.

[Grunch]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the value bet can be a one card str8 often enough, to warrant call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think a naked 9 is having a hard time betting out to ensure the opponent doesnt check when the river pairs & flushes.

And I was trying to come up with which 9s even get to this point. 99 and T9 is about all I can come up with, and that's not many hands.

[crookdimwit]

[ QUOTE ]
So now I am left with trying to decide if I am playing against a chaser, someone passive or someone with enough smarts to bet the scare card.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is what is so tricky about this hand. I've faced a lot of players who don't hesitate to bet huge on the river to sell the idea that the scare card made the nuts, when in fact they have far less than that. They're aggressive and fearless enough to make a cold decision that their only chance to win the hand is to make a huge bet on the river to scare another big hand away. But not having any read on this guy, that's a tough judgment to make.

Ugh. Glad I'm still playing cheap, lower-stakes poker.

[MatthewRyan]

Folding is the best option here. At 200nl I don't see too many river donk bet bluffs into large pots vs aggressors. Not to mention that hands like JT, QT, 9T, or something similar with spades are likely to call you preflop looking to stack you.

[notevenhere]

[ QUOTE ]
notevenhere: if you had to give a full range of hands that villain might have, rather that just the specific two that we beat, what would it look like?

[/ QUOTE ]

FishNChips just posted a great range that I pretty much agree with.

The only point I would add to his post, is that this could be a disciplined player trying to get to cheap showdown with 2 pair on a very drawy board, who luckily hits the boat on river. So turn call is not 100% out of line for this player. I'd think a player of this type would bet more at the river, as this is a board you will get called with quite a bit, with all these 5 card hand possibilities out there.

[Fly]

Call (and quickly).