The poker gods giveth and they taketh away
 

I really really hate spots like this. Pretty new to the table, so no reads.

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $141
UTG+1: $59.85
CO: $216.10
Hero: $217
SB: $181.17
BB: $196.09

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
3 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $8</font>, SB folds, BB calls.

Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($17, 2 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $12</font>, BB calls.

Turn: T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($41, 2 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $30</font>, BB calls.

River: T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($101, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets $70</font>, Hero?????

Re: The poker gods giveth and they taketh away
 

Ugly. I fold.

Re: The poker gods giveth and they taketh away
 

Well, I'd make this lead with any two, given the fact that it is a perfect card to blow you off the hand. But I'm not sure most would. I think it's a fold.

Re: The poker gods giveth and they taketh away
 

this is a tough one. did he do anything that stands out as far as timing, like insta-check, insta-call, or insta-bet that we could use to help?

Re: The poker gods giveth and they taketh away
 

As played I fold.

On the turn, I think pushing has merit. You don't want to give odds to flush chasers, and you may stack 99 and sets. Thoughts? 3/4 pot can't be optimal here, can it?

Re: The poker gods giveth and they taketh away
 

Its not pretty, but I'm calling here.

Reasons to fold:
1 - flush got there
2 - boat got there

Reasons to call:
1 - we have the As so villain is a little less likely to be chasing a flush here with the betting we've done.
2 - if he boated, he did it with JT or QT because he would have popped us earlier with a set given that scary board.
3 - villain could easily float AT on the flop, picked up a pair on the turn, and think his trips are good on the river
4 - we're getting &gt; 2:1 on our call here, which isn't great, but the list of hands that villain reasonably has that beat us is fairly short.

I'm calling this bet.

FishNChips

Re: The poker gods giveth and they taketh away
 

I'd hate to give AKs a freeroll here, though it's just one of his hands.

If villian did have AKs though I'd expect him to invest much more on the turn, which you can't know until he just calls your bet.

Re: The poker gods giveth and they taketh away
 

He can't have AKs, at least not one we are worried about. We are holding the naked ace of spades.

Incidentally, thoughts on shoving the river with the naked ace? In my opinion this is -EV because stacks aren't deep enough and this villain may not be good enough to lay down his small flush. I am guessing on this since I am not very familiar with $100NL, but is this worth considering?

Re: The poker gods giveth and they taketh away
 

lets not forget that villain can have a naked 9 here too. I call because he can be overvaluing a naked 9 or trips here. If he's got me, he's got me, but i'm calling. Case can be made for pushing the turn...he's not likely to call a PSB with much other than the made straight anyway...and if he's got the 9, he'll call a push.

Re: The poker gods giveth and they taketh away
 

Yeah you're right there is no freeroll chance on the turn. If we overpot it though we lose value from weaker hands that won't chase.

With villian having less than 80 behind on river I don't think pushing to fold small flush works against an unknown often enough here. This is 200NL btw.