Limp/calling with suited connector

[uclabruinz]

betgo,

Would you agree that if we KNOW that villain has AK, AQ, or 88 we must raise the turn?

[betgo]

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betgo,

Would you agree that if we KNOW that villain has AK, AQ, or 88 we must raise the turn?

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If we knew that, I might still call and call a bluff on the river. He doesn't have that many outs with those hands.

I wouldn't interpret the tiny bet on the turn as weakness. There wouldn't be a lot of point in making that tiny bet with AK/AQ or 88. There is a reasonable possibility of a set, as well as an overpair, based on the hands villain would raise with preflop.

[uclabruinz]

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betgo,

Would you agree that if we KNOW that villain has AK, AQ, or 88 we must raise the turn?

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If we knew that, I might still call and call a bluff on the river. He doesn't have that many outs with those hands.

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I'm not going to argue with you about the read, but I'm pretty shocked that you prefer to give a free card on the turn to a villain that you know you are ahead of and that you know has 6-14 outs.

Noah said it best. We have a speculative hand. Why would we want to raise here? Villain is giving us a chance to get to a showdown fairly cheaply, so that is precicely what we should be doing.

I fold the flop here more often than not. I'm not sure overcalling has much value here. A play like this is much more +EV when HU. The caller in between changes everything and severely kills your equity (i.e., more of a chance you're already beat and more of a chance you GET beat on the turn).

Given your flop call, I agree that calling down is the best way to go.

Betgo - I also found your reasoning to be somewhat... I don't know... illogical. First off, how did you get such a strong read that Villain was on an overpair as opposed to overcards (I would never have thought this guy had QQ after his turn bet, by the way). Seems too much like a results-oriented pat on the back. Something's awry.

[betgo]

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Noah said it best. We have a speculative hand. Why would we want to raise here? Villain is giving us a chance to get to a showdown fairly cheaply, so that is precicely what we should be doing.

I fold the flop here more often than not. I'm not sure overcalling has much value here. A play like this is much more +EV when HU. The caller in between changes everything and severely kills your equity (i.e., more of a chance you're already beat and more of a chance you GET beat on the turn).

Given your flop call, I agree that calling down is the best way to go.

Betgo - I also found your reasoning to be somewhat... I don't know... illogical. First off, how did you get such a strong read that Villain was on an overpair as opposed to overcards (I would never have thought this guy had QQ after his turn bet, by the way). Seems too much like a results-oriented pat on the back. Something's awry.

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I don't know if the overcall of the flop bet was good. I was getting 4.5-1 pot odds to call the small bet. I figured I was ahead or had 5 outs.

I don't like raising the turn at all. It is generall not good to raise with medium strength hands like this. If I had top pair plus an open ended, it might be right to play it very strongly. If I had nothing, it might be reasonable to try to bluff following the weak bet.

With second pair plus a gutshot, I am better hoping to hit one of nine outs or win a showdown. If I raise, hands that are ahead are likely to call or reraise and hands that are behind are likely to fold.

Raising the river is a reasonable play, since I could easily get top pair or an overpair to fold on the dangerous board. I think the only reasonable plays on the river are calling and making a substantial raise. Folding or making a small raise are bad.

[betgo]

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I call BS, results-oriented bragging.

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I thought villain probably had an overpair on the turn. I figured calling the small bet was best whether I was ahead or not.

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betgo...

since you've thought out this line a bit... I have three questions

A) did villain do this betting sequence once before (big raise, 1/2pt, 1/5 pt 1/10th pt) that tipped you off or was it a more intuitive read?
B) how much would you value bet on the river if you hit your nine outer?
C) How much would you expect him to call if you raised on the river...

I obviously have some thoughts on B and C and I am looking to see how you would handle it...

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I wasn't sure villain had an overpair. The small raise from the blinds at limpers set off red flags. The small bets were also consitant with the way a lot of people play overpairs. I see this a lot where people slow play the big pair the whole way like it's the nuts. It's not the way I play, but you see it a lot. So I wasn't sure of an overpair, but I was suspicious of one.