The poker gods giveth and they taketh away

[notevenhere]

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so what's your read on an unknown player? mine is that unknown players don't bluff scare cards, so i fold. i wonder how this read will change as i move up past $50NL.

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Is the river card truly a scare card for Villain? Villian has just been bet into on the last 2 streets, from a player who could have taken a free card. Does he put our Hero on a spade flush draw?

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sorry if i wasn't clear .. i meant that it's a scare card for Hero, not Villain. but, my read on unknown villains is that they won't take that as a neon sign saying "bluff into the hero now." vs. epdaws, of course, it's an instacall [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

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Ok, I see what you meant. But in my opinion, the Villain isn't bluffing here to represent the spade flush. He is either betting his trips, or his boat. I vote trips, so I call


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What do you beat. And I mean exact hands.

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A10 can play that line. K10 will also play that line.

[KaiserSose]

I'm surprised so many people advocate calling here. For me this is a pretty clear fold. The villain is clearly representing that he is not afraid of you coming over the top of his bet with a big raise. I mean, it sucks, you had the absolute nuts on the turn, but, honestly what do you beat?

Edit: Unless the player is really stupid he would never lead like that with K-10 or A-10 as the prior poster has suggested. If he had position on you and you checked to him, maybe, but lets keep in mind that you have position and that you have shown aggression on every street.

[Scuba Chuck]

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What do you beat. And I mean exact hands.

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This whole time I was thinking villain had KT. Given this river, couldn't KT lead here?

[notevenhere]

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Edit: Unless the player is really stupid he would never lead like that with K-10 or A-10 as the prior poster has suggested. If he had position on you and you checked to him, maybe, but lets keep in mind that you have position and that you have shown aggression on every street.

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Suppose you are Villain with K10. Post-Flop, you put Hero on Top Pair with good to best kicker. How do you play this hand?

[poincaraux]

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so what's your read on an unknown player? mine is that unknown players don't bluff scare cards, so i fold. i wonder how this read will change as i move up past $50NL.

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Is the river card truly a scare card for Villain? Villian has just been bet into on the last 2 streets, from a player who could have taken a free card. Does he put our Hero on a spade flush draw?

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sorry if i wasn't clear .. i meant that it's a scare card for Hero, not Villain. but, my read on unknown villains is that they won't take that as a neon sign saying "bluff into the hero now." vs. epdaws, of course, it's an instacall [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

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Ok, I see what you meant. But in my opinion, the Villain isn't bluffing here to represent the spade flush.


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Ugh .. I think I must be super-bad at explaining things today. I don't think Villain is bluffing to represent the spade flush either. I don't think an unknown villain is bluffing here very much at all.

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He is either betting his trips, or his boat. I vote trips, so I call

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Villain has to be pretty balsy to bet rivered trips on that board. Call, call, call, lead and no chance of a flush?

[fish43]

Villian liked his hand preflop, on the flop, the turn, and even more on the river. It seems reasonable to believe QT and JT are in the Villian's range for defending against a button raise.

The hero's read then is that the villian is showing strength on all streets. I think therefore the Hero's only read indicates a fold. If the Villian is bluffing or has a worse hand then the Hero can afford to wait until the edge is better and the read more clear.

[Grunch]

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sorry for my ignorance, but what does "float" mean?

thanks

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To call a bet one one street with the sole intention of raising to steal on a future street.

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Hey Grunch (or any other mod, of course), shouldn't this be in the main sticky somewhere prominent?

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Yep! Thanks for the suggestion.

[KaiserSose]

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Suppose you are Villain with K10. Post-Flop, you put Hero on Top Pair with good to best kicker. How do you play this hand?

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Well..hero was button so his raise could really be anything, including hands that have a 9 in it. His range here is a lot wider then just top pair, overpair type of hands. I don't know maybe I'm just a little weak when it comes to being out of position and I'm too quick to assume others are too. If I were villain I wouldn't exclude a made straight, full house, or rivered flush from hero's range of hands and knowing those were all possibilities, I wouldn't want to lead into him with trips knowing he can come over the top and put me at a difficult decision for all of my chips.

Edit: Sorry I didn't really answer your question. I was just trying to explain why I wouldn't lead into him with trips on the river. Also, I fold K-10/A-10 on the turn.

[poincaraux]

A lot of people sure like to put villain (or, from the villain's perspective, the hero) on one or two exact hands. Except in very special situations, I don't have much success doing that.

notevenhere: if you had to give a full range of hands that villain might have, rather that just the specific two that we beat, what would it look like?

[FishNChips]

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I'm surprised so many people advocate calling here. For me this is a pretty clear fold. The villain is clearly representing that he is not afraid of you coming over the top of his bet with a big raise. I mean, it sucks, you had the absolute nuts on the turn, but, honestly what do you beat?

Edit: Unless the player is really stupid he would never lead like that with K-10 or A-10 as the prior poster has suggested. If he had position on you and you checked to him, maybe, but lets keep in mind that you have position and that you have shown aggression on every street.

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Lets list hands that villain could play this way:

2spades : If he has K9 he's probably going to play the turn stronger given that he made a straight. 9s8s -- ass end of the straight, he makes a bigger play on the turn as well. There are a lot of combinations of spades and he certainly could be on one of them.

AT / KT / T9 : fewer combos but wouldn't KT or T9 make a lot of sense. He defends with it. He flops OESD. He turns a pair. He rivers trips. And he's putting villain on some Q and thinks his trips are good and makes a nice value bet with them.

JT : OK, we're screwed if he's got this, but doesn't he pop us with that draw heavy board earlier in the hand?

QT : Again, screwed, but I think villain hits us pretty good on the turn rather than waiting for the river.

I think there are plenty of hands we're still ahead of. Yes, there are plenty of hands we're behind, but how many of them play the hand the way this was played. I'm giving villain T9 or KT, not spades, and I'm calling the value bet.

Its also slightly possible that villain has a totally busted draw, saw the board pair and thinks he can take the pot with a value sized bet. It may only be 2% chance, but its still a chance.

I'm not 100% sure that calling is right, but I'm sure its not 100% right to fold either. Villain's range here is wide enough that we could be good enough to make it a reasonable call. I don't know how much metagame we get at $200NL, but calling here may let villain know that bluffing isn't a wonderful idea and might make it easier to play against villain on future hands. This could be totally wrong though.

~FishNChips