Variance, fear of it, and dealing with it.

[illegit]

[ QUOTE ]
Against his actual hand I am a favorite, but If I run his range through the pokerstove his range is slight favorite to my A-7, unless I am using the pokerstove wrong.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 48.4642 % 43.96% 04.51% { Ad7h }
Hand 2: 51.5358 % 47.03% 04.51% { KK-22, A2s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo, T9o, 87o }

[/ QUOTE ]
Erin, you are not understanding this situation properly. First of all that's an extremely wide range to be CALLING with and I seriously doubt his CALLING range is that wide. his PUSHING range might be that wide, but his calling range probably is not. If he's a good player he'd rather fold a hand like 97s here and push any 2 from the SB on his next hand.

Secondly the range you described, and I'm just estimating, is only around the top 35% of hands. So even if his range IS that wide you're forgetting the fact that 65% of the time you'll be winning the blinds which is a HUGE percentage of your stack. If you combine all the times he folds and you win the blinds with all the times he calls and you still win, and compare it to the times he calls and you lose, it's a huge money making edge to push this hand here. HUGE. it's not close to marginal at all.

[JSchnett]

anything but a push there makes me throw up

[Erik Blazynski]

First of all, My name is Blazman, I don't know who Erin is.

Yes, that is his range, I have been in this same situation with this person several times. His range is wide because he knows that my range is wide here.

I appreciate the feed back and you are totally right, pushing pre flop is the play. There is none other.

-Blazman

[TwistedEcho]

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 58.8412 % 57.17% 01.67% { Ac7d }
Hand 2: 41.1588 % 39.49% 01.67% { random }

push !

[illegit]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, that is his range, I have been in this same situation with this person several times. His range is wide because he knows that my range is wide here.


[/ QUOTE ]
Well as we all agree it's a push even if his range is this wide. And i agree that he should open up his calling range here somewhat significantly if he knows your range is wide, but even so, as a thinking player he knows that he needs a better hand to call with than you need to push with

And you said he knows your push range here is wide, but is your push range wide? You limped with A7o. How can your push range be wide if you didn't even push A7? In addition how was he going to call a push with ten high, if he didn't even push his K4s preflop after you limped, which should have been an absolute autopush? I think you've misread the situation on many levels. All signs point to his calling range being much tighter than you estimate.

[uclabruinz]

If you want to win money playing poker, you better work on two things immediately.

1. You need to understand why this push is mandatory and hugely +EV.

2. You need to understand that you are going to lose almost every tournament you enter. Work on understanding theory and making correct decisions, and let go of the damn results.

[uclabruinz]

[ QUOTE ]
Well as we all agree it's a push even if his range is this wide.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a push even if he's calling with any two.

[Sh@i'tan]

[ QUOTE ]
You should take slight edges whenever you can get them. I would be interested to know if anyone disagrees with that.

[/ QUOTE ]i disagree.

[tubasteve]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You should take slight edges whenever you can get them. I would be interested to know if anyone disagrees with that.

[/ QUOTE ]i disagree.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with the disagreement. Didn't Ferguson or someone say if he had to risk his whole life savings on like a 51% shot he would do it?

[Sh@i'tan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You should take slight edges whenever you can get them. I would be interested to know if anyone disagrees with that.

[/ QUOTE ]i disagree.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with the disagreement. Didn't Ferguson or someone say if he had to risk his whole life savings on like a 51% shot he would do it?

[/ QUOTE ]Thats great 11 people left i'm 2nd in chips. Chip leader is at my table i have QQ he has AKs. I can see his cards i'll OF all day knowing he will call my all in. I may be wrong thinking like this, but its a -$EV play and i know i will be able to find better spots. If i'm clearly outmatched by everyone left in the tourney then i might take the flip.