Meat And Potatoes Real Life Good Question

[fnord_too]

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Thus you are ahead 5 ways, tying 1 way, and behind 6 ways when he calls or moves in. And it is important that AKo is not in this mix. So overall you are going to be behind 6:5.


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Your analysis is missing equity. the 6 ways you are behind, you have about 15% equity. 2 of the ways you are ahead, you have about 70% equity. Never do you have more than 85% equity I think, so you are behind on average more than you are ahead on average. I haven't really done any math on the original question, this comment is strictly on your analysis.

[Sunny Mehta]

need to know:

what will villain do on the flop if we flat-call?....will he auto-bet if checked to, and if so, how much?....

EDIT: also, what will villain do on the flop with QQ/JJ on particular boards and, does that change based on our preflop action of calling/reraising?.....

[RikaKazak]

David basically you just created a math problem.

In poker if it was always this simple you would just do the math, and presto, you have the answer. The true problem in poker is you won't know those exact %. Maybe he has air 20%, maybe he has air only 5%, that's the tough part.

The hand can get even more complicated if you assume a small bankroll, or if it's live and there can be physical tells.

Sorry, I'm 6 tabling right now, so can't do the math, but I'm sure given a couple days time someone will.

[BluffTHIS!]

fnord,

You are right about your equity in the pot as it now stands. So just jack the stacks up to increasing levels with the same size blinds and then analalyze for each size stack.

[BluffTHIS!]

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creed,

Are you saying that you can never get away from a KK vs AA situation, or just that the stacks have to be even deeper in relation to the blinds for you to do so?

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Sure, I've folded KK before.

But villain seems looser than a lot of the online nits I play.

This becomes a math problem. The fact that villain will push with AKs as well as with AA makes the call of his allin reraise slightly +EV once you make it $1500 to go; you're calling $2000 and you expect to win $2100 or so.

If he pushes occasionally with other stuff (I can't tell from Sklansky's example), then the call is even better.

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A lot of this is going to depend on your read of the opponent's range of hands he would push/call a reraise with for sure. But an important factor here as well is whether other good opponents are able to get away with lesser losses holding KK when you are the one with AA. If that is the case, in which case you don't have such times making up for dumping with KK to AA yourself, then it pays to be more cautious with that type of player.

[FGators]

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Make a pot-commit raise of 1500 more. Call if he moves in after that.

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Assuming you play these stakes a ton and have a large bankroll I like this play the best. If he has aces and pushes it's the old cooler and you are going to go broke when you call.

If you make it 1500 and he smooth calls and it comes 442 how are you not going to go broke anyway.

[turnipmonster]

I took this into account in my ev calcs. what I missed was he "almost" always folds QQ/JJ, I assumed he always folded them to a big raise.

[DoomSlice]

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In poker if it was always this simple you would just do the math, and presto, you have the answer. The true problem in poker is you won't know those exact %. Maybe he has air 20%, maybe he has air only 5%, that's the tough part.

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I'm sure he didn't know that before.

You're supposed to be assigning percentages like this while you're playing, and then doing what is best mathematically... hence the math problem.

[creedofhubris]

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creed,

Are you saying that you can never get away from a KK vs AA situation, or just that the stacks have to be even deeper in relation to the blinds for you to do so?

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Sure, I've folded KK before.

But villain seems looser than a lot of the online nits I play.

This becomes a math problem. The fact that villain will push with AKs as well as with AA makes the call of his allin reraise slightly +EV once you make it $1500 to go; you're calling $2000 and you expect to win $2100 or so.

If he pushes occasionally with other stuff (I can't tell from Sklansky's example), then the call is even better.

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A lot of this is going to depend on your read of the opponent's range of hands he would push/call a reraise with for sure. But an important factor here as well is whether other good opponents are able to get away with lesser losses holding KK when you are the one with AA. If that is the case, in which case you don't have such times making up for dumping with KK to AA yourself, then it pays to be more cautious with that type of player.

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A player who can be too easily moved off of KK can be exploited.

[BluffTHIS!]

I agree with that statement. But I disagree that many players are willing to risk those attempts so long as your overall game plan is not exploitable by your more easily being read to have that specific hand.